如何进行暴发查中英文.ppt

通过副伤寒的人群分布我们可以有哪些推论？What did we learn from the distribution of paratyphoid by person? 群体 Group 人口Population 罹患率AR(%) 学生 Students 1005 40 一年级 Grade One 394 56 二年级 Grade Two 308 33 三年级 Grade Three 303 27 厨房工人 Kitchen workers 10 60 教师 Teachers 72 1 总数 Total 1087 38 Step 5 提出假设 Develop a hypothesis 准备现场工作 Prepare for field work 证实暴发存在 Establish existence of an outbreak Time Verify the diagnosis 验证诊断 确定人、地点和时间特征 Characterize person, place and time Develop a hypothesis 提出假设 Develop analytic study to test hypothesis 通过分析研究验证假说 Reconsider, refine, retest hypothesis 再推敲，修正和再检验假说 实施控制措施 Implement Control 将调查结果进行交流 Communicate Findings Define, find, and interview cases 定义，搜索，访谈病例 假设是从事实、数据和信息中产生的可测试的推断 A hypothesis is a testable proposition developed from facts, data, and information. 假设的质量取决于数据的宽度和准确性 The quality of the hypothesis depends upon the breadth and accuracy of the data 调查的成功取决于假设的质量 The success of the investigation depends upon the quality of the hypotheses 完美假设应该包括哪些内容?What should the perfect hypothesis include? 人口 Population 原因和并存因素 Causes and co-factors 预期结果 Expected effect 剂量反应关系 Dose-response 时间效应关系 Time-response relationship 在校学生因在11月10日至15日期间饮用学校给水系统中未烧开的水导致了11月20日至12月15日间的副伤寒暴发。Among students of the school, drinking unboiled water from the school water system between November 10 and 15 caused paratyphoid fever from November 20 to December 15.  水灾之后 Followed flooding 水未烧开或是被污染 Water not boiled or disinfected 学生和厨房工人受感染情况相似并且都喝自来水 Students and kitchen workers affected evenly and drank tap water 教师自己烧饮用水未受感染 Teachers not affected and boiled their drinking water 水灾距离暴发高峰期时间过长 Flooding too long before outbreak peak 水灾淡化了河水污染 Flooding diluted river pollution 高发病率与某种食物有关 High attack rate typical of food 流行病学曲线也与典型食物引起的暴发相类似 Epidemic curve more typical of food Step 6 假设－学校用水导致的暴发 Hypothesis – water from school system caused the outbreak 通过分析研究验证假说Develop an analytic study to test hy