我国财政可持续性实证分析1952―2007.docVIP

我国财政可持续性实证分析1952―2007 　　[摘要]1998年以来,我国连续7年实施积极的财政政策。2008年,为了应对世界金融危机,我国又重启积极的财政政策。积极的财政政策在促进经济增长的同时也使得财政赤字显著增加和国债规模显著扩大,这就不可避免地引起人们对我国财政可持续性的担忧。文章根据政府跨时预算约束理论,利用协整方法对1952―2007年我国财政可持续性的状况进行实证分析。结果显示:从长期来看,1952―2007年,我国的财政是可持续的;从短期来看,1952―1978年、1979―1994年,我国的财政也是可持续的;但1995―2007年,我国的财政收支之间不存在协整关系,财政赤字政策不可持续。 　　 　　[关键词]财政可持续性;跨时预算约束;协整检验 　　 　　[[[中图分类号]][F812.0][[文献标识码]][A][[文章编号]][1002-736X(2010)03-0065-05]] 　　 　　An Empirical Study on the Fiscal Sustainability of China: 1952―2007 　　Zou Yuanting 1, Xu Li 2 　　(1. Jiangxi Water Resources and Hydropower School, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330038; 　　(2. Finance School, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330022) 　　 　　Abstract: The active fiscal policy was adopted in China for seven years from 1998. In order to deal with global financial crisis, the government adopted the active fiscal policy again in 2008. On one hand, the active fiscal policy promotes economic growth rate, on the other hand, it brings the magnitude of fiscal deficits and public debts, which leads to peoples anxiousness on the fiscal sustainability of China. In this paper, based on government inter-temporal budget constraint, we analyze the sustainability of fiscal deficit during 1952 -2007 by using co-integration method. According to the result, we find that the finance of China is sustainable during 1952-2007 in the long run. In the short term, we find that the finance of China is sustainable during 1952-1978 and 1979-1994. Fiscal revenue and expenditure of China during 1995-2007 is not co-integrated. Therefore, we conclude that the budget deficit policy in China during 1995-2007 is not sustainable. 　　Key words: fiscal sustainability; inter-temporal budget constraint; co-integration test 　　 　　一、引言 　　 　　财政可持续性(fiscal sustainability)是指作为经济实体的国家财政的存续状态或能力。它实际研究的是政府的债务清偿能力问题。当政府有能力偿还债务时,财政就是可持续的。反之,财政就不可持续,就要破产(Buiter,1985)。改革开放以来,我国的财政政策在支持经济体制改革、促进经济增长的同时也伴随着连年的财政赤字。在1978―2007年的30年间,只有4个年份出现财政盈余,其余年份都出现了财政赤字。诚然,财政赤字作为一种政策措施可以扩大支出以刺激有效需求,实现充