城市道路平面交叉口可靠性分析-reliability analysis of urban road intersection.docx

II II Abstract Recent years, with the developing of the economy and the improving of the society, the traffic demand has been increasing dramatically. The density of urban road and all kinds of basic traffic infrastructure has been improved in large degree, but the traffic load is increasing continuously. The motor vehicle tenure increases dramatically year after year which aggravates the operation capability of the urban road. In the existing urban road traffic system, with the increasing of traffic flow, the intersection approaches saturation because of the complexity and multi-direction of the traffic composition. Intersection bottleneck has become an important factor which restricts the function and effect of the whole road traffic system. As a burgeoning engineering subject, reliability has been adopted in many subjects, as well as being adopted in traffic planning gradually. Basing on researching carefully on correlated literatures and summarizing the domestic and international studies on reliability of traffic system, the thesis probes embedded study in intersection reliability. Then it calculates the reliability of intersection basing on capacity (bearing capacity) model, and analyzes systematically physical attributes and traffic attributes of intersection which are classified to quantity attribute and fuzzy attribute. Finally, the thesis revises calculation model of reliability using the existing modification factors and modification factor defined by AHP, then realizes the calculation model with Matlab process, and validates the method by utilizing the above model to analyze the intersection of Yangwu road and Pingbu road in Guangzhou city. The optimized design of intersection basing on analysis of reliability is an important application of reliability study. In the basis of resolving the traditional optimization method of intersection, the thesis puts forward the reliability-based designing model of intersection, and adopts the probabilistic perturbation