基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛法的天然气管道腐蚀可靠性的研究d3xstdrl.docVIP

基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛法的天然气管道腐蚀可靠性的研究 Study on Corrosion Reliability of Gas Pipeline Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method Speciality:Management System Engineering Postgraduate:Wu Di Instructor:Prof. Zhang Zhixia Abstract With the growth of the pipeline serving time, due to corrosion caused by pipeline failure accidents in the domestic and foreign natural gas pipeline failure the accident proportion is much higher than the failure accidents caused by other factors. The pipeline in the event of failure, it will cause a great impact on peoples lives and property safety, and ecological environment. In order to ensure the safe operation of the gas pipeline, study on corrosion reliability of gas pipeline is showing its important practical significance. In this paper, mainly based on deeply research on the related theories, combined with gas pipeline corrosion reasons, corrosion mechanism, reliability model and so on has been system research. It provides the theory basis for the pipeline to formulate the corresponding control measures and maintenance plan. The main research contents are as follows: 1 Analyze the corrosion reasons of gas pipeline. According the hoop stress changes, combined with the geometry of pipeline, the corrosion rate of pipeline, the pipe yield strength parameters, established corrosion reliability model based on the Monte Carlo method to determine the failure distribution function, each parameters and failure probability of corrosion pipeline analysis and calculation. With the help of MATLAB tools to complete the simulation process. And corrosion pipeline parameter sensitivity analysis to find out the key factors that affect pipeline failure2 The reliability model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. For the performance of the gas pipeline corrosion reasons recession meet the general non-linear degradation process, established the degenerate orbital model, based on the model for reliability evaluation of corroded pipelines. Us