北京市旅游客源市场预测与-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

北京市旅游客源市场预测与分析 ! 429321 摘要 旅游业己成为我国国民经济新的增长点，在政治、社会、文化 及环境等各个方面都起着极大的作用和影响。北京市作为中国的首 都，其旅游业在全国旅游业中起着举足轻重的作用，对国内外游客 有很大的吸引力，是旅游热点城市，通过发展旅游业，提高对国民 经济的贡献。 i 旅游业的竞争，也是对客源的竞争。本文针对北京市旅游业发 展的历史、现状，通过对北京市国内外旅游客源市场游客数量的分 析，根据客流量与时间的 关系 ，采用定性与定量的方法，建立预测 模型，并对几种模型的拟合结果进行比较，得出最佳模型，进而又 对北京市未来的国内旅游市场和海外旅游市场进行预测，为今后儿 年客源市场规划提供科学依据。此外，对国内游客特点和海外市场 的主要客源地进行分析，指出北京市旅游市场存在的主要问题，提 出国内和境外旅游客源市场的开拓方向和促销策略，以及对旅游战 略规划提出建议，为政府制定旅游相关政策、企业进行决 策和学术 界进行研究提供 二些有益的参考。 关键词 旅游市场，预测，分析，北京市 ABSTRACT 、 ， Tourism hωrecently become a m句or growth area ín the Chinese national economy. lt plays a significant role in，and has a dramatic effect on，areas such 部 politics，societ弘 culture and environmen t. As the capital of the country and a tourist hot spot，Beìjìng plays a key role in the national tourism industry and attracts many tourists 仕om both home and abroad. The future development of tourism will result in ít making an increasingly important contribution to the natíonal economy. b There is considerable competition ìn the market to attract tourists. Based on t its historical development and the current situation in Beijings tourism market ，and through a market analysis of tourists at home and abroad ，prediction modeIs are established by means of qualitative and quantítative analysis according to the relationship between tourist f10w and time. Results of several models are compared and an optimum model is suggested. The thesis goes on to predict the future development ofthe domestic and overseas tourist markets，which offers a scientific basis for plarming the tourist-generating market over the next few years. Furthennore，由e 由esis analyses the maín sources of overseas and domestic tourists， points out the main problems existing in the Beijing tourísm market，and puts forward suggestions for the future direction of development and promotion s位ategies. Suggestions for the tourism strategy prograrηme are provided in the t hope of offering a meaningful basis for fonnulating rele