住宅建筑建材准备阶段能耗与碳排放灰色分析.docVIP

住宅建筑建材准备阶段能耗与碳排放灰色分析 　　摘 要：建筑生命周期内，尤其是建材准备阶段的能耗和碳排放统计数据相对较少，缺乏精度高且可操作性强的模型.将非等间距灰色系统预测模型应用于合肥地区住宅建筑建材准备阶段能耗和碳排放的分析预测，获得住宅建筑建材准备阶段能耗和碳排放的预测公式，经后验差检验显示预测结果具有足够的精度水平.在此基础上，提出以标准煤作为参考指标的单位碳排放条件下能源利用能力的评价指标.通过对比发现，建材准备阶段单位碳排放条件下的能源利用能力具有较大的提升空间. 　　关键词：能源消耗；建材准备阶段；住宅建筑；非等间距灰色模型；碳排放 　　中图分类号：TU111，TK123文献标识码：A 　　文章编号：1674-2974（2016）05-0151-06 　　Abstract：The statistics of energy consumption and carbon emission of building during the whole life have the characteristics of poverty and great fluctuation in China， especially during the preparing stage of building materials. Further， analysis models to predict the energy consumption and carbon emission with high-accuracy and operability have not yet been developed. In the present study， the unequal interval grey model was introduced for the analysis and prediction of the energy consumption and carbon emission of the residential building materials at preparation stage in Hefei City. The test results with sufficient accuracy were obtained according to the posterior-variance-test. An evaluation index selecting the standard coal as the reference was proposed on the basis of the proposed model to express the energy utilization ability under unit carbon emission. The prediction results show that the energy utilization ability of building materials at preparation stage is still much lower， which can be improved considerably by comparing with the reference index. The proposed method can be employed to evaluate the energy utilization carbon emission in other building form as well as the unfinished deserted building and vacant house. 　　Key words：energy consumption； building materials preparation stage； residential building； unequal interval grey model； carbon emission 　　住宅建筑是建筑业的主要组成部分，通过历年统计数据可以发现，无论是开工面积、施工面积还是竣工面积均占当年房地产开发比例的70%以上，个别年份甚至达到80%.我国的建筑能耗约占全社会总能耗的30%，而如果考虑建材生产过程中的能耗，这一比例将增加到46.7%[1].随着经济发展和人们生活水平的提高，住宅建筑能源消耗也逐渐呈现上升趋势，污染物排放也相应的增长. 　　目前，针对建筑产品和建设活动的能源利用和环境影响分析主要集中在应用LCA理论从宏观和微观两个角度对建筑生命周期内的环境影响进行研究，宏观方面通过对建筑系统的生命周期能耗进