international economics英文.ppt

* Balance of payments adjustments Surplus nations will experience rising national income, leading to an increased demand for imports - partially offsetting the surplus Deficit nations will experience falling income, leading to a drop in demand for imports - partially offsetting the deficit Foreign repercussions effect - one country’s deficit is another’s surplus, so that while income is declining in one country, its exports will increase to the country with rising income Income adjustment * 收入调整 古典的国际收支调整理论集中于价格调整机制，把利率对私人短期资本移动的影响放在第二位。古典理论受到的一个主要批评是其几乎完全忽视了收入调整的作用。古典的经济学家虽然意识到盈余国的收入或购买力相对于赤字国会提高，这将对每个国家的进口水平产生影响，但是，在他们眼中收入效应只是价格变化的副产品。由于19世纪的黄金移动对价格和利率水平的影响微乎其微，经济学家们开始寻找固定汇率制下国际收支调整的其他解释。凯恩斯在20世纪30年代提出的收入决定理论给出了一种解释。 * 凯恩斯认为，在固定汇率制下，盈余国和赤字国收入变动的影响将有助于国际收支自动恢复均衡。如果国际收支长期失衡，盈余国的收入会上升，进口增加，相反，赤字国的收入将下降，进口减少。收入变化对进口水平的这些影响将扭转国际收支的失衡。 * Income adjustment applied Balance of payments adjustments * Balance of payments adjustments Require governments not to intervene Automatic systems seem desirable when they are believed to lead to full employment; when nations face unemployment and shrinking output, automatic mechanisms seem inadequate Disadvantages of automatic mechanisms * Balance of payments adjustments BOP disequilibrium represents an imbalance between the supply and demand for money Demand for money is: Directly related to income and prices Inversely related to interest rates Supply of money has two components: Domestic component - credit created by national government International component - foreign exchange reserves Monetary adjustment - background * Balance of payments adjustments Monetary adjustment Payments deficits are the result of an excess supply of money at home Excess supply of money encourages imports, which results in foreign exchange reserves flowing overseas and reducing the money supply * Balance of payments adjustments Monetary adjustment Excess demand for money leads to a payments surplus Excess demand is reflected in higher interest rates and