传统能源消耗与经济发展地协整性分析 ——以山东省为例.pdfVIP

Clean Coal and Energy 清洁煤与能源, 2018, 6(2), 11-19 Published Online June 2018 in Hans. /journal/cce /10.12677/cce.2018.62002 Cointegration Analysis of Traditional Energy Consumption and Economic Development —Take Shandong Province as an Example Haoda Wang, Fengjiao Yi School of Mathematical Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao Shandong th th th Received: Jun. 27 , 2018; accepted: Jul. 6 , 2018; published: Jul. 13 , 2018 Abstract According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP of Shandong Province has ranked third in the country for many years, and its corresponding energy consumption ranks high in all provinces and cities across the country. In order to quantitatively analyze the relation- ship between energy consumption and economic development in Shandong Province, this paper has collected relevant data for the past 20 years. Firstly, the long-term equilibrium relationship between the two is explored through cointegration analysis. In view of the existence of autocorre- lation in the model, a hysteresis effect was introduced in the regression. At the same time, the sample size is too small, the parameter estimation accuracy is low, and bootstrap solves this problem. Finally, considering the problems that over-reliance on energy consumption and eco- nomic growth may affect the environment, economic and social development, we put forward corresponding suggestions. Keywords Energy Consumption, Economic Development, Principal Component Analysis, Cointegration Test, Bootstrap 传统能源消耗与经济发展的协整性分析 ——以山东省为例 王浩达，伊凤娇 中国海洋大学数学科学学院，山东 青岛 收稿日期：2018年6月27 日；录用