1981―2015年辽阳县气温变化特征及的趋势分析.docVIP

1981―2015年辽阳县气温变化特征及的趋势分析 　　摘要 根据1981―2015年辽阳县35年的气温数据，采用一元线性回归分析、5年滑动平均分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验和Morlet小波分析统计方法，对该地区多年气温的变化特征进行线性趋势分析、突变分析和周期性分析。结果表明，近35年?|阳地区年均气温呈上升趋势，气候倾向率为0.457 ℃/10年。5年滑动平均曲线得出，年均气温在研究时域内经历了3次“冷―暖”交替变化。从Mann-Kendall突变特征分析中，辽阳县年均气温在1994年发生由低温到高温的突变，从1997年开始出现显著增加。Morlet小波分析结果表明，年均气温变化过程中存在着16～35年、11～15年和2.5～10.0年3类尺度周期变化规律，主要表现在32年和7年左右的主周期。 　　关键词 年均气温；变化特征；趋势分析；突变检验；小波分析；辽宁辽阳；1981―2015年 　　中图分类号 P423.3 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2017）24-0194-02 　　Analysis on Characteristics and Tendency of Temperature Change in Liaoyang County from 1981 to 2015 　　ZHANG Lin 1 HUANG Hui-yu 1 BAI Zhi-na 2 SONG Xiao-wei 3 LI Da-wei 1 LI En-jian 1 　　（1 Liaoyang County Meteorological Bureau in Liaoning Province，Liaoyang Liaoning 111299； 2 Liaoyang Meteorological Bureau； 　　3 Shenyang Meteorological Bureau） 　　Abstract Based on the temperature data in the region of Liaoyang County from 1981 to 2015，linear regression analysis，5-year moving average analysis，Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis method were employed to analyze the linear trend，the sudden change and the periodicity of temperature change in this area. The results showed that the annual temperature of Liaoyang County had presented an upward trend in recent 35 years，and the climate tendency rate was 0.457 ℃ per 10 years. 5-year moving average curve showed that the average temperature presented 3 times of cold-warm alternating. The Mann-Kendall sudden change characteristics analysis showed that the annual average temperature changed suddenly from low to high in 1994 and increased significantly in 1997.In addition，Morlet wavelet analysis method showed that there were three scales（16-35 years，11-15 years，and 2.5-10.0 years）in the temperature periodic variation.These variations were mainly shown in the period of 32 years and 7 years. 　　Key words annual average temperature；change characteristics；trend analysis；sudden change test；wavelet analysis；Liaoyang Liaoning；1981-2015 　　全球气候变化是气候研究领域的大事件，是各国政府和相关科研机构等共