一种基于可预报性的暴雨预报评分新方法Ⅱ暴雨检验评分-气象学报.PDF

doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.003 气象学报 一种基于可预报性的暴雨预报评分新方法Ⅱ： 暴雨检验评分模型及评估试验 1 *1 1 2 1 3 1 4 陈法敬 陈静 韦青 李嘉鹏 刘凑华 杨东 赵滨 张志刚 1 *1 1 2 1 3 1 CHEN Fajing CHEN Jing WEI Qing LI Jiapeng LIU Couhua YANG Dong ZHAO Bin 4 Zhang Zhigang 1.国家气象中心，北京，100081 2.浙江省气象台，杭州，310002 3.山西省气象局，太原，030002 4. 中国气象局，北京，100081 1.National Meteorological Center,Beijing100081,China 2.The Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310002,China 3.The Meteorological Bureau of Shanxi Province,Taiyuan,030002,China 4.China Meteorological Administration,Beijing,100081,China 2017-12-13 收稿，2018-06-22 改回. 陈法敬，陈静，韦青，李嘉鹏，刘凑华，杨东，赵滨，张志刚，2019. 一种基于可预报的暴 雨预报评分新方法Ⅱ：暴雨检验评分模型及评估试验.气象学报，77 （待刊） Chen Fajing ,Chen Jing, Wei Qing，Li Jiapeng，Liu Couhua，Yang Dong ，Zhao Bin ，Zhang Zhigang. 2019. A new method for heavy rainfall forecast verification based on predictability Ⅱ： Verification Method and Test. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 77(in press)(in Chinese) Abstract In order to solve the problem that the current verification scores(Threat Score, TS) for heavy rainfall forecasting suffer a lot from double punishment due to a relatively high level of missing rate and false alarm rate, as well as ignoring the uneven temporal and spatial distribution of heavy rainfall in China. This paper designed a new verification method and computational model for heavy rainfall forecasting based on the predictability of heavy rainfall as well as analyzed the expectation scores based on forecasters. A new score model is designed and tested usingthe5km*5km quantitative precipitation