《巴菲特：通货膨胀是如何欺骗股票投资者的(原文How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor)》.pdf

How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor The central problem in the stock market is that the return on capital hasn´t risen with inflation. It seems to be stuck at 12 percent. by Warren E. Buffett, FORTUNE May 1977 It is no longer a secret that stocks, like bonds, do poorly in an inflationary environment. We have been in such an environment for most of the past decade, and it has indeed been a time of troubles for stocks. But the reasons for the stock markets problems in this period are still imperfectly understood. There is no mystery at all about the problems of bondholders in an era of inflation. When the value of the dollar deteriorates month after month, a security with income and principal payments denominated in those dollars isnt going to be a big winner. You hardly need a Ph.D. in economics to figure that one out. It was long assumed that stocks were something else. For many years, the conventional wisdom insisted that stocks were a hedge against inflation. The proposition was rooted in the fact that stocks are not claims against dollars, as bonds are, but represent ownership of companies with productive facilities. These, investors believed, would retain their Value in real terms, let the politicians print money as they might. And why didnt it turn but that way? The main reason, I believe, is that stocks, in economic substance, are really very similar to bonds. I know that this belief will seem eccentric to many investors. Thay will immediately observe that the return on a bond (the coupon) is fixed, while the return on an equity investment (the companys earnings) can vary substantially from one year to another. True enough. But anyone who examines the aggregate returns that have bee