想象旅游业的未来（英文版）-研究报告.pdf

What If? Imagining the Future of the Travel Industry From the political and economic environment to technology, demographics, and consumer behaviors, an array of trends are triggering a transformation. Four scenarios assess what might lie over the horizon. What If? Imagining the Future of the Travel Industry 1 An almost dizzying pace of technological innovation has produced a wealth of new business opportunities in the global travel ecosystem, both enriching and expanding the world of travel. The race to develop a driverless car, introduce digital assistants into our homes, or make sense of our online data all promise to change the way we travel. But at the same time, headlines are full of bad omens. From terrorist attacks across Europe and escalating tensions in the South China Sea to the protectionist instincts of a new US adminis- tration and the uncharted territory of Brexit, our familiar world, for good or bad, is unraveling. “Technology has never held more promise for the travel industry,” says Alex Luzarraga, vice president of Corporate Strategy at Amadeus. “Nevertheless, there is a sense of societies being broken, of unfairness and inequality, and a lack of opportunities for many people. As technology advances, the status quo is being upended. There is mistrust and populism. Things we used to take for granted, such as the right to travel across Europe without passports, may be less likely in the future.” What conditions would bring about a world without border controls, where security concerns are alleviated and travelers benefit from perfect, real-time information? With an array of new issues on the horizon, Amadeus wanted to identify the trends that could disrupt the travel industry over the next five to seven years. Management consultants A.T. Kearney asked some of the best minds in the technology and travel industries to evaluate the factors that are, or may soon be, transforming