计及不确定性的用户互动式运行斯坦伯格博弈模型.docVIP

第XX卷 第XXX期 电测与仪表 Vol.XX No.XXX 201X年 第XX期 Electrical Measurement Instrumentation Dec.201X PAGE 1 - 计及不确定性的用户互动式运行斯坦伯格博弈模型* 黄海涛1，李小玉1，邹龙2，万旺经2，贺敏3 （1.上海电力学院 电气工程学院，上海 200090；2.国网安徽省电力公司阜阳供电公司，安徽 阜阳 236017；3.国网甘肃省电力公司，兰州 730030） 摘要：售电公司的策略决策行为是实现电力行业市场化和发挥需求响应潜力的重要环节。为制定科学合理的策略决策行为，应用斯坦伯格博弈论理论，构建用户互动式运行的双层规划模型。模型中的上下主从博弈关系，能够体现出售电商和需求侧双方策略决策行为之间的互动性。其中，上层考虑运行中可能出现的不确定性因素和需求决策行为的影响，应用条件风险价值方法CVar和非线性随机规划理论，构建了计及多种因素的售电商行为策略决策模型；下层引入需求侧舒适度，并考虑售电商行为策略决策影响，构建了用户用电需求决策行为模型。最后，算例采用双层遗传算法优化决策行为，验证了该模型在反映用户互动行为与风险管理对售电商行为策略决策的影响方面具有较好的指导意义。 关键词：斯坦伯格博弈；双层规划；需求决策；遗传算法 中图分类号：TM73 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-1390（2018）00-0000-00 The Stackerberg game model of user interactive operation considering uncertainty Huang Haitao1, Li Xiaoyu1, Zou Long2, Wan Wangjing2, He Min3 (1. College of Electric Power Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China. 2.State2. Fuyang Power Supply Company of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Corporation Fuyang Power Supply Company, Fuyang 236017, Anhui, China. 3.State3. State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730030, China)a.) Abstract：: The strategic decision-making behavior of the electricity retailer is an important part of realizing the market power of the power industry and realizing developing the potential of demand response. This paper builds a user interactive operation bi-level programming model of user interactive operation based on Stackelberg game theory according to the strategic decision making behavior of retailer’s strategic decision making behavior. The interaction between the upper and lower main in the model can reflect the interaction between the retailer and the demand side. The upper part builds a retailers’ strategic decision making behavior of retailers considering risk management based on CVar and nonlinear stochastic programming theory; the lower part in