Interdecadal variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China英文版本.pdfVIP

Clim Dyn DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2048-1 Interdecadal variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China Ling Zhang • Xiuhua Zhu • Klaus Fraedrich • Frank Sielmann • Xiefei Zhi Received: 6 November 2013 / Accepted: 6 January 2014 The Author(s) 2014. This article is published with open access at S Abstract Interdecadal variability of observed winter precipitation increase influenced by circulation anomalies precipitation in Southeast China (1961–2010) is charac- over the mid-to-high latitudes. (4) The abnormal moisture terized by the first empirical orthogonal function of the transport along the southwestern boundary of the abnormal three-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) sub- anticyclone over south Japan is related to anomalous south- jected to a 9-year running mean. For interdecadal time easterlies modulated by the SST anomalies over Western scales the dominating spatial modes represent monopole Pacific Ocean; a positive (negative) SST anomaly will features involving the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the sea strengthen (weaken) warm and humid air transport, leading surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Dynamic composite to abundant (reduced) precipitation in Southeast China. analysis (based on NCEP/NCAR reanalyzes) reveals the That is both AO and SST anomalies determine the non- following results: (1) Interdecadal SPI-variations show a linear trend observed in winter precipitation over Southeast trend from a dryer state in the 1970s via an increase during China. the 1980s towards stabilization on wetter conditions com- mencing with the 1990s. (2) Increasing wetness in South- Keywords Precipitation SPI Arctic Oscillation east China is attributed to an abnormal anticyclone over Sea S