《城市主干道交通状态预测方案的设计》-毕业论文设计.docVIP

五邑大学本科毕业设计 PAGE PAGE 21 ADDIN CNKISM.UserStyle摘 要 本文在参考国内外研究的基础上，针对城市主干道交通的非线性和时变特性给出了拥堵的定义，成因，分类和特征,对经典拥堵算法和常见交通流预测模型进行分析阐述,重点对算法和模型的原理使用条件进行探讨，分析交通流预测与拥堵识别之间的关系。另外，在阐述主干道定义，特点和速度和流量变化的基础上，建立基于交通流量的主干道交通预测模型，重点对模型的形式进行研究分析。最后，用MATLAB软件进行系统仿真，经过仿真表明基于交通流量的预测方案能够对城市主干道交通状态进行有效地预测分析。 关键词 交通拥堵 预测 速度 系统仿真 Abstract This study based on the reference to domestic and foreign, according to the definition of the main city road traffic, nonlinear and time-varying characteristics given congestion causes, classification and characteristic of the classical algorithm, congestion and traffic flow prediction model were analyzed, with emphasis on the algorithm and model principle using conditions were studied, the relationship between traffic analysis flow prediction and congestion identification. In addition, the main definition, basic characteristics and velocity and flow rate changes, establishment of trunk road traffic prediction model based on traffic flow, key form of model analysis. Finally, the system simulation with MATLAB software, the simulation shows that the traffic flow prediction scheme can effectively forecast and analysis of traffic state based on the city roads. Keywords: traffic congestion prediction speed system simulation 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957629 摘 要 PAGEREF _Toc357957629 \h I HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957630 Abstract PAGEREF _Toc357957630 \h II HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957631 第一章 绪论 PAGEREF _Toc357957631 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957632 1.1 课题的背景及理论 PAGEREF _Toc357957632 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957633 1.2 研究的实际意义 PAGEREF _Toc357957633 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957634 1.3 城市交通信息预测理论的发展和研究现状 PAGEREF _Toc357957634 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957635 1.4 主要研究内容 PAGEREF _Toc357957635 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957636 1.5 本文内容安排 PAGEREF _Toc357957636 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957637 1.6 本章小结 PAGEREF _Toc357957637 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957638 第二章 交通流的相关理论及预测 PAGEREF _Toc357957638 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357957639 2.