大珠三角地区服务业发展收敛分析-理论经济学专业论文.docx

万方数据 万方数据 摘 要 缩小区域服务业发展差距，促进区域服务业合作一直是大珠三角经济工作的重点内 容。而服务业发展收敛检验模型则是动态地评价服务业合作成效的关键工具。服务业发展 收敛的内涵在于，区域内经济体通过合作实现优势互补，服务业落后地区的服务业增长率 通过产业结构调整赶超服务业发达地区，区域内的产业发展水平差距将逐步缩小。本文通 过检验大珠三角服务业发展收敛水平，主要有三个研究目的：（1）探究区域内地区间服务 业发展的差距及其变化趋势；（2）以此为依据，评价大珠三角服务业合作成效，总结其基 本特征和发展趋势；（3）验证服务业发展收敛模型合理性，找到其形成的原因。 本文以经济增长收敛理论为基础，结合服务业发展的特点，构建服务业发展收敛检验 模型，用以检验大珠三角服务业发展收敛水平，尝试从崭新的视角定量地评价区域服务业 合作的成效。研究发现：（1）2004 年与 2008 年均存在收敛的特征，但 2008 年比 2004 年 的收敛速度慢；（2）大珠三角服务业发展收敛具有明显的俱乐部趋同与行业差异性，因此 全行业性和全域性将是未来大珠三角服务业合作的趋势；（3）服务业发展收敛检验模型结 果具有合理性，而空间自相关、政策环境和经济环境则是服务业发展收敛的重要影响因素。 关键词：服务业，收敛，大珠三角，区域合作 I Abstract Narrowing the gap of the regional service industry development, and promoting the regional cooperation in service industry have been the key content of the Great Pearl River Delta economic work. And the test model of service industry development convergence is a key tool for dynamic evaluation of service industry cooperation effect. The connotation of service industry development convergence is that, with the adjustment of industrial structure, backward area of service industry has a greater growth rate than developed area of service industry, and the disparity of the regional industry development level is no longer expanding, through regional cooperation and realizing mutual complement. Through the test of service industry development convergence of GPRD, there are three main research purposes in this essay: (1) Find the gap and the variation trend of service industry development in this region; （2）According to the results of convergence, evaluate the effect of the GPRD service industry cooperation, and summarize its basic characteristics and development trends; （3）Test the rationality of the model of service industry convergence, and find out the reasons for its formation. Based on the economic growth convergence theory and the characteristics of service industry development, this essay constructs the model of service industry convergence, in order to test the convergence level of the GPRD service