大坝安全监测系统设计及数据分析-控制理论与控制工程专业论文.docx

摘 要 随着坝工技术的迅速发展，水力资源的深入开发利用，大坝的安全问题也日益 突出。相关领域的学者、专家也纷纷展开了大坝安全监测技术的研究工作。目前我 国针对中小型大坝的安全监测，以基于客户机/服务器(Client/Server, C/S)模式的 离线分析为主，这种方式不能实时、全面的分析大坝性态及其运行状态。 针对上述问题，本文以某水电站混凝土大坝为研究对象，建立了基于浏览器 (Browser/Server, B/S)模式的大坝安全监测系统，并对大坝采集的数据进行分析总 结，实现实时、在线、准确的大坝安全监测。本文主要研究内容及其结果可归纳为： 首先分析总结了目前国内外大坝安全监测系统结构及其数据分析的发展现状，并指 出采用 Web 技术基于 B/S 模式的软件系统已成为大坝安全监测系统发展的必然趋势。 其次设计了大坝安全自动化监测系统，包括系统的需求分析、系统开发模式、系统 框架、系统主要功能、系统的安全性保障等。再次以混凝土大坝为监测对象，总结 并归纳了大坝变形位移预报量的数学统计模型，详细阐述了多元线性回归建模理论 及其模型效果分析、逐步回归的主要思想和算法实现的具体步骤、偏最小二乘回归 的主要算法理论以及 RBF 神经网络。最后以某水电站混凝土大坝为实例，应用本文 所设计的监测系统，进行数据分析。实验结果表明，在应用于该大坝的三种统计回 归建模分析方法中，偏最小二乘回归建模是最优的选择。 关键字：大坝安全监测，B/S，数据分析，统计模型 Abstract Along with the rapid development of the dam engineering and the in-depth exploitation of the hydroelectric resources, the dam safety issues are becoming increasingly prominent. The research work on a dam safety monitoring technology has been launched by scholars and experts of this field. At present, the offline analysis based on C/S mode is given priority to safety monitoring on the small and medium-sized dam in our country, which cant analyze the behavior and operation of the dam in a real- time, a comprehensive way. In view of the above problem, as the concrete dam in a hydropower station to be a research object, dam safety monitoring system based on B/S structure has been built and the collected data are analyzed and summarized, the real-time, on-line, accurate dam safety monitoring is realized. The main study contents and the results can be summarized as follows: Firstly, the current development of the dam safety monitoring system structure and data analysis are summarized, and the inevitable trend of the dam safety monitoring system that the software system based on B/S structure using the Web technology is pointed out. Secondly, the dam safety automation monitoring system based on B/S structure is designed and expounded. This includes the requirement analysis, system development mode, system framework, system main function, the