低碳经济背景下广东省产业结构升级研究-世界经济专业论文.docx

暨南大学硕士学位论文 暨南大学硕士学位论文 万方数据 万方数据 摘 要 本文旨在对广东省低碳经济转型下的产业结构变化进行研究，明确推进节能 减排的低碳经济，对广东省经济发展及产业结构会产生怎样的影响。首先就广东 省经济发展、产业结构、能源消费及碳排放现状予以描述，进而对能源消耗、碳 排放与产业结构的关系进行理论与实证分析，得出结论并提出实现低碳转型下产 业结构升级的政策建议。 具体而言，依据广东省经济发展实情，分析广东省三次产业间及各产业内部 的结构变化，对广东省的三次产业及各主要行业的碳排放与能源消费变化趋势进 行描述性统计分析，明确碳排放总量、碳排放强度及能源消费量、能源强度在不 同产业及各行业部门间的分布特征及变化规律。采用向量自回归模型(VAR) 分 析 1995－2012 年间广东的能源强度、二氧化碳排放强度和产业结构的变化，并 进行平稳性检验与格兰杰因果检验。通过 VAR 模型中的脉冲响应函数，分析碳 强度与能源强度对产业结构的冲击效应。结果表明，碳强度和能源强度对产业结 构有负向冲击效应，因而在低碳转型下，降低能源消耗与碳排放，倒逼产业结构 的优化升级。 关键字：广东；产业结构；能源消费；碳排放；VAR 模型 I Abstract This paper aims to analysis the change of industrial structures under the low-carbon economy transformation, specifically what the impact on Guangdongs economic development and industrial structure, under the implementation of energy conservation, low-carbon economy. Firstly, to be described in terms of economic development, the industrial structure, energy consumption and carbon emissions status quo in Guangdong Province, then for the relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions and industrial structure of theoretical and empirical analysis. Draws the conclusion , puts forward policy suggestions of the upgrading of industrial structure and low carbon transformation Specifically, analysis the structural changes among the three industries and in the industry, according to the Guangdong provincial economic development. for the three industry of Guangdong province and the major industry of carbon emissions and energy consumption trends do descriptive statistics, clear carbon emissions, carbon emissions intensity and energy consumption, energy intensity in different industries and industry distribution and change rule between departments. Using vector autoregression (VAR) model of 1995-2012 time series analysis of Guangdongs energy intensity and carbon intensity, Guangdong industrial structure data, and a stationary test and cointegration. The impulse response function in VAR model, analysis of carbon intensity and energy inten