公司因素对证 券分析师盈利预测准确性的影响-企业管理专业论文.docx

华中科技大学硕士学位论文 华 中 科 技 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II II Abstract Securities analyst is professional who services to institutions and individual investors with providing investment analysis advice and guiding their investment behavior. These investors in the securities market cannot target their information collecting very specifically by analyzing abundant materials because of their limitations of the expertise and the lower level of analysis. Securities analysts appear to fill the gap because their forecasts effectively provide guidance for investors in profit forecast. Therefore, the research about improving Securities Analyst forecast accuracy becomes very important in practice. This study was doing this job in order to find the antecedents of forecast accuracy, which has a very important practical significance for the securities market efficiency. Based on the summary of the researches in academia, GEM listed companies were collected as a study sample which were concern by securities analysts in 2010-2011. Four basic factors of the company, the basic characteristics of the company, the company’s financial characteristics, corporate governance, company information disclosure status of these companies, were studied by multiple linear regression model which gave the analysis of the influence to earnings forecast accuracy. Conclusions were as follows: Securities analyst profit forecast error was divided into three states as “high reliability”, “accuracy”, and “occur significant prediction error”. We found that the proportion of the sample size of the first two states contribute nearly 60%, indicating a relatively high forecast accuracy for listed companies on GEM by securities analyst. If forecast error was divided into two groups of study in which one group was greater than zero and anther was less than zero, the results show that the earnings forecast error is greater than zero, which means Securities analyst earnings forecast was optimistic positive deviation. This paper divi