公路工程造价全风险管理研究-道路与铁道工程专业论文.docx

AbstractCost Abstract Cost maIlagemem is a11 itllportallt pan ofhi曲way construction maIlagement．In recent years，f越lllre to ke印withinⅡle cost budget／foreca刚estimate／tender in constnlction industⅣ is cornInon pheno瑚enon in 11i曲啪ys cons仇lction．so it is necessary to inn．oduce risk m锄agemem i11 cost management．Reccntly，the theory of risk management a11d the tlleory of cost manageme力t are devcloping，w11ich is me theorctical basis for cost risk management． Based on the theory of risk mallagement aIld combined埘也the coment of cost m锄agemem， the thesis can了out risk management for llnccrtain f如tor w11ich arose d嘶ng the cost detennination and contr01．The main contcnt includes： (1)Stanillg丘om血e f0皿ation ofhi曲way constnlction cost a11d combining谢t11 the basal pfinciple of risk managemem，t11e thesis presents a method t0 ide而句the cost risk in di饪hent stages ofhigllway project，and establish tbe risk investigation table． (2)In view of exis6ng cost risk factor alld according to util时也eo彤me paper f0皿me risk degrce standard for din’erent project stages．The paper classifies all吐le risk factors aIld makes the whole eValuation ofcost risk in diffhent啦唱es，t11rough all kinds ofrisk evaluation memods．The paper establishes a risk eVal蒯on system，w11ich rcgards the此zy analytical 11ierarchy pro∞ss船the main矗㈣e． (3)Bascd on the risk analysis ofhi曲way construction aIld according t0 the ch眦cteristics of cost managcme咄t11is paper divides cost risk int0 the s诅ge risk柚d the t砌smission risk_ The订肌smission risk is contmlkd not 011ly in tllis stage，but als0 me follo讪ng stages．The paper Mngs fonVard pert证ence contml meaSures for me main stage risk atld the tmnsmission risk． Ke)啊ords：enginceIing ofllighr0砜cons廿Llction cost，risk managemem ．11． l绪论1绪论 l绪论 1绪论 1．1研究的背景及意义 1．1．1公路项目造价管理现状 在国家宏观政策支持下，我国交通建设事业得到了突飞猛进的发展。据2004年8月底 的统计，全国高速公路总里程已超3万km，居世界第二位。虽然交通建设形势发展十分迅 猛，在管理上也积累了一些经验，但还存在着一些问题，如建设市场管理还不够规范，工程 质量问题时有发生，特别是工程造价偏高的问题未得到有效整治。 近年来的公路建设中，决算超预算、预算超概算、概算超估算的“三超”现象仍很普 遍，以至于某些建设项目投资失控。另外，公路工程项目投资大、工期长、质量要求