长江干流站中长期径流预报方法研究探究.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2014, 3, 283-290 Published Online August 2014 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2014.34035 Research on Medium and Long Term Runoff Forecast in Yangtze River Basin Junwei Jia1,2, Liping Zhang1,2, Lian Liu1,2, Lijie Shan1,2 1 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China 2 Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan, China Email: 1240756256@ th st th Received: Jul. 14 , 2014; revised: Jul. 21 , 2014; accepted: Jul. 29 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Yangtze River is one of China’s most economically developed regions, and the quantity of water directly affects the economic and social development in the region, so an accurate medium and long-term forecast is significant for multi-reservoir scheduling, water resources allocation and ra- tional utilization. In this paper, Pingshan, Yichang, Datong and Hankou four stations in the Yangtze River basin were selected as the research objects, based on 75 predictors, including 74 atmos- pheric circulation index and pre-runoff, using the correlation coefficient method to preliminary select the predictors and stepwise regression method to optimize the predictors, a runoff fore- casting model of monthly scale and ten-day scale based on the Support vector machine (SVM) was established. And the applicability of the model in the Yangtze River