浙闽樱桃地理分布模拟及气候限制因子分析.pdf

热带亚热带植物学报 2017, 25(4): 315 ~ 322 Journal of Tropical and Subtropical Botany 浙闽樱桃地理分布模拟及气候限制因子分析 朱弘, 尤禄祥, 李涌福, 王华辰, 王贤荣* (南京林业大学南方现代林业协同创新中心，生物与环境学院，南京210037) 摘要：为了解浙闽樱桃(Cerasus schneideriana)地理分布特征及与气候限制因子之间的关系，基于DIVA-GIS 平台获取实际地 理分布点的气候资料，利用BIOCLIM 模型预测当下适生区范围以及预测其未来潜在分布。结果表明，浙闽樱桃实际分布区 覆盖浙江、福建、安徽、江西、广西及湖南6 省，浙闽交界的山区是自然分布的核心区，浙皖交界是其分布的北界。未来气 候变化情境(CCM3)下，浙闽樱桃的潜在分布区概率将增大，且有北扩的趋势。主成分分析(PCA)表明，年降水量(bio12)、最 湿季降雨量(bio16)、最暖季降雨量(bio18)、温度季节变化方差(bio4)是影响浙闽樱桃当下适生区的气候限制因子，频率直方 图进一步确定他们的适宜范围分别为 1503~ 2003 mm 、604~ 951 mm 、528~ 791 mm 和601~872 (标准差*100)。ROC 曲线检 验表明BIOCLIM 对浙闽樱桃分布预测的精度很高(AUC= 0.998)，结果是可信的。因此，浙闽樱桃适合生长在我国北亚热带 温暖湿润区，水热因子是造成其分布格局的主导气候限制因子。 关键词：浙闽樱桃；地理分布；气候限制因子；BIOCLIM 模型；潜在分布区预测 doi: 10.11926/jtsb.3702 Modeling the Geographical Distribution Pattern and Climatic Limited Factors of Cerasus schneideriana * ZHU Hong, YOU Lu-xiang, LI Yong-fu, WANG Hua-chen, WANG Xian-rong (Collaborative Innovation Center of the Southern Modern Forestry, College of Forest Resources and Environment, Nanjing Forestry University , Nanjing 210037, China) Abstract: To understand the relationship between geographical distribution pattern of Cerasus schneideriana and its climatic limited factors, the DIVA-GIS software and BIOCLIM model were applied to predict the present and future potential spatial areas on the basis of actual distribution points. The results showed that the actual distributions of C. schneideriana covered 6 provinces of east China, including Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, Jiangxi, Guangxi and Hunan. The natural distribution core area located in mountain areas of Zhejiang-Fujian border, and the north boundary arrived at Zhejiang-Anhui border. Under future climate change situation (CCM3), the probability of potential areas