建筑技术创新风险的贝叶斯网络模型分析-计算机工程与应用.PDFVIP

Computer Engineering and Applications 计算机工程与应用 2014 ，50（18） 33 建筑技术创新风险的贝叶斯网络模型分析 ——以绿色建筑技术创新项目为例 1 2 陈 帆 ，谢洪涛 1 2 CHEN Fan , XIE Hongtao 1.湖南科技大学 土木工程学院，湖南 湘潭 411201 2.昆明理工大学 建筑工程学院，昆明 650093 1.School of Civil Engineering, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, Hunan 411201, China 2.Construction Engineering College, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China CHEN Fan, XIE Hongtao. Risk analysis of construction technology innovation by Bayesian networks model—a case study of green building innovation project. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2014, 50 （18）：33-38. Abstract ：Risk assessment of construction technology innovation is an unresolved problem for the traditional calculation method. This paper describes how Bayesian network is applied to quantifying the probability of construction technology innovation risks. Based on the review of relevant literature and survey, a Bayesian network model is constructed to risk assessment of construction technology innovation. Through using the NETICA software to fit the data samples of ques- tionnaire investigation, it gets the probability density of most nodes. The validity of the proposed model is tested by using a realistic case study with high compliance at last. Key words ：technology innovation; Bayesian network; risk assessment; construction technology 摘 要：传统的计算方法难以对建筑技术创新风险进行定量分析。通过专家先验知识与问卷调查数据相结合，可以 建立建筑技术创新风险评估的贝叶斯信念网络模型。采用NETICA 软件拟合样本数据，得到网络模型各个节点间 的条件概率分布。在某绿色建筑技术创新项目中应用结果表明贝叶斯网络模型能够比较准确地实现对建筑技术创 新风险的定量预测，与工程实际情况对比具有较好的符合性。 关键词：技术创新；贝叶斯网络；风险评估；建筑技术 文献标志码：A 中图分类号：F294 doi ：10.3778/j.issn. 1002-8331.1401-0326 [1] 1 引言 传统的风险评估方法主要包括灰色关联分析法 、