基于作物模型的冬小麦气候适宜度算法研究.PDFVIP

中国农学通报 2013,29(32):374-378 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 基于作物模型的冬小麦气候适宜度算法研究 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 王 琦 ，郭建茂 ，郑腾飞 ，施俊怡 1 2 （江苏省农业气象重点实验室，南京210044 ；南京信息工程大学应用气象学院，南京210044 ） 摘 要：为了定量分析气象条件对作物生长的综合影响，利用WOFOST 作物生长模型分析冬小麦各生育 期的气候适宜度。通过对华北地区3 个代表站点2007—2009 年生长季的冬小麦进行生长模拟，并选取 2007—2008 年生长季的模拟结果作为标准，以其他年份同一生育期的生物量与标准的比值作为该生育 期的气候适宜度，并与统计方法的结果进行对比。结果表明，用作物模型计算得到的适宜度与产量之间 呈现出较好的正相关性，决定系数为0.603 ，且通过了0.05 置信水平检验，可用该方法对冬小麦气候适宜 度进行估算。 关键词：冬小麦；适宜度；作物模型 中图分类号：S162.5+3 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2012-3140 Research of Suitability Algorithm for Winter Wheat Based on Crop Model Wang Qi1,2, Guo Jianmao1,2, Zheng Tengfei1,2, Shi Junyi1,2 1 ( JiangsuKeyLaboratoryofAgriculturalMeteorology, Nanjing 210044; 2 CollegeofAppliedMeteorology,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology, Nanjing 210044) Abstract: In order to analyze the effect of weather condition on crop growth quantitatively, crop growth model WOFOST is used to calculate the climate suitability of winter wheat. Simulate the crop growth during 2007 to 2009 growing season in 3 representative sites in North China, and take the result of 2007 to 2008 growing season as standard, then compare other corresponding period ’s biomass and take the ratio as winter wheat ’s climate suitability then compare the value with traditional statistical algorithm. Results showed that, the 2 suitability calculated by the model had a better positive correlation with the