合肥市疟疾发病预测数学模型应用及发病现况的流行病学分析-劳动卫生与环境卫生学专业论文.docxVIP

安徽医 安徽医科大学硕士学位论文 PAGE PAGE 2 合肥市疟疾发病预测数学模型应用及 现况流行病学研究 第一部分.ARIMA 模型和 Markov 模型在合肥市疟疾发 病预测中的应用研究 摘要 目的 探讨 ARIMA 模型及 Markov 模型预测合肥市疟疾发病率的可行性，预测疟 疾发病趋势，为全市的疟疾防治工作提供科学依据。 方法 采用 SPSS 13.0 软件对合肥市 1991-2010 年疟疾逐月发病率建立 ARIMA 模 型，利用 2011 年疟疾月发病率对模型参数进行校正，从而预测 2012 年疟疾月发 病率；用 Excel 软件对合肥市 1990-2011 年疟疾发病率建立 Markov 模型，预测合 肥市 2012-2013 年的疟疾发病率。 结果 模型ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12是合肥市疟疾拟合的较优模型，预测值与实际值 基本吻合，且实际值均在预测值95%可信区间范围内，其外推预测的平均相对误差 为2.57%；利用建成的Markov模型预测合肥市2012-2013年疟疾发病率均在1/10万 -3.5/10万之间，而2012年实际发病率为0/10万，预测结果与实际情况不符。 结论 用时间序列模型对疟疾发病情况的拟合结果满意，预测效果良好，可用于 预测未来疟疾的变动趋势，为疟疾预防控制措施的制定提供重要依据；而本研究 中模拟的 Markov 模型不适合预测合肥市疟疾的发病情况。 关键词 ARIMA 模型 Markov 模型 时间序列分析 疟疾 预测 发病率 合 肥市 Application of HYPERLINK dict://key.0895DFE8DB67F9409DB285590D870EDD/mathematic ARIMA model and Markov model in the forecasting of malaria incidence in Hefei City Abstract Objective Using the ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model and the Markov model to predict the monthly incidence trend of malaria and provide scientific data for malaria control and prevention in Hefei city. Methods To construct the multiple seasonal ARIMA model based on the monthly malaria incidence of Hefei city from 1999 to 2010 with SPSS13.0 software.Modified the parameters of the ARIMA model according to the monthly malaria incidence in 2011 and then forecasted the monthly malaria incidence in 2012 in Hefei city.To construct the Markov model based on the yearly malaria incidence of Hefei city from 1990 to 2011 with Excel softwareand Markov model was applied on epidemic trend of malaria in Hefei city in the next 2 years. Results The ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12 model was the more suitbale model for forecast the malaria incidence in Hefei city.The prediction vaules of malaria incidence was fit to the practical situation .All true values fell in the 95% confidence interval of expected values for expected case numbers of malaria by the model.The mean relative error of the model was 2.57%.Markov model forecasted the morbidity rates of mal