JasonSweig演示资料货币和心理(英文).pptVIP

Money and the Mind How Neuroscientists Are Cracking the Code of Investment Behavior Jason Zweig Money Magazine AIMR Annual Conference May 14, 2002 Money and the Mind Some Tentative Speculations on the Neuroscience of Investing Jason Zweig Money Magazine AIMR Annual Conference May 14, 2002 Money and the Mind Most common answer: I don’t know 2nd most common: We don’t know Money and the Mind Investment analysis is a purely rational process Emotion leads to error “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful” (W. Buffett) Money and the Mind Professionals have superior control over emotions Professionals determine past trends more accurately Professionals extrapolate future trends more reliably Professionals less subject to overconfidence Money and the Mind If these things are true, then: why does winning or losing the same amount of money feel so different? why do analysts express high confidence in accuracy of their forecasts despite track record? why does a stock that misses the consensus earnings forecast by $0.01 lose billions in seconds? why do investors persist in finding patterns in random data (Internet “eyeballs,” earnings growth “trends,” technical “analysis”)? Money and the Mind Over some 60 million years of primate evolution, did the brain develop to: avoid predators, identify predictable opportunities for foraging, seek simple patterns that maximize odds of survival? calculate algorithms for foreign-currency arbitrage or option-adjusted spreads on collateralized mortgage obligations? Research Rundown Neuroscientists Antonio Damasio, Antoine Bechara (Iowa) Wolfram Schultz (Cambridge) Read Montague (Baylor) Jordan Grafman (NIH) Raymond Dolan (University College, London) Peter Shizgal (Concordia, Montreal) Michael Gazzaniga (Dartmouth) Angela Sirigu (Lyon) Hans Breiter (Harvard) Brian Knutson (Stanford) Research Rundown Economists Jonathan Cohen (Princeton) George Loewenstein (Carnegie Mellon) Colin Camerer (CalT