杰拉米#8231;西格尔投资者的未来(英文演示稿).pptVIP

Future for InvestorsProf. Jeremy J. Siegel ~ The Wharton SchoolBoston Security Analysts Society ~ December 5, 2005 The Verdict of History Total Real Return Indices Long and Short-term Risk of Stocks and Bonds Holding Period Risk for Annual Real Returns Projected Equity Returns Earnings Yield, or 1/P-E ratio, is excellent long-term predictor of real stock returns. Average P-E ratio in last 130 years = 15; average earnings yield 6.7%. SP 500 Estimate of next 12 months operating earnings $85.55 (end 4Q06) SP 500 (Nov. 30) = 1258. P-E ratio 14.70, earning yield = 6.80%. If you take reported earnings, estimate $77.90, for a P-E ratio of 16.15, EY of 6.19% If you take core earnings estimate $72.57, P-E ratio 17.33, earnings yield 5.77% Bond Returns and Equity Premium Ten year at 4.47%, 30-year at 4.68% If we subtract 2.5% for inflation, we get a real yield of 1.97% and 2.18%. TIPs yields are 2.11% and 2.07%. Equity Premium is about 4% now. Expect real yields to rise about 1% Long-Term Equity Premium = 3%. Rationale for Lower Equity Returns Greater Liquidity and ease of diversification in the equity Market Greater understanding by investors of the equity premium. Increasingly favorable taxation of equity. The Future for Investors Is Updating Essential to indexed Returns? Richard Foster and Sarah Kaplan from McKinsey Co, in their 2001 book, Creative Destruction state (p. 28): “New companies generate higher levels of total return to shareholders than do the older survivors. …. For example if the SP 500 were today made up of only those companies that were on the list when it was formed in 1957, the overall performance would have been significantly less.” Change in Sector Weights 1957-2005 SP 500 Portfolios Performance of Portfolios (1957-2003) Twenty Top Performing Survivors Top Twenty on November 30 Growth Does Not Guarantee Return Is there a “Corporate El Dorado”? Quotation from Foster and Kaplan’s Creative Destruction: p. 9 “McKinsey’s long-term studies of