基于HEC-HMS与新安江模型洪水预报研究与应用Based on the HEC - HMS with xin an river flood forecast model rsearch and application.docx

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2018-12-23 发布于福建
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基于HEC-HMS与新安江模型洪水预报研究与应用Based on the HEC - HMS with xin an river flood forecast model rsearch and application.docx

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基于HEC-HMS与新安江模型洪水预报研究与应用Based on the HEC - HMS with xin an river flood forecast model rsearch and application

ABSTRACT The LiJiang upstream basin is one of the basins which torrent disasters occured Seriously in GuangXi．Due to LiJiang upstream basin is one of the rainstorm’S centers．This led to the torrent disasters occured frequently．Therefore，this paper take the LiJiang upstream watershed as the research obj ect．Building lij iang upstream digital watershed Based on DEM and land use，soil type and exploring for scientific and reasonable schemes of flood forecasting for the lij iang upstream watershed．Providing theory and method support for the food control and disaster mitigation． Floods events were simulated by hydraulic modeling system HEC—HMS：SCS curve number loss model was selected to compute runoff volumes，Snyder unit hydrograph model was selected to compute direct runoff,Baseflow was modeled by exponential recession， Muskingum was used to model channel flow．Then，Analysising the sensitivity of parameters with the modified Morris Method．According to the results of sensitivity analysis：the most sensitive parameter was CN followed by Cp、Lag time、K．Further,Optimizing the parameters and Amending the SCS—CN AMC hierarchies．After calibration and validation，in calibration period：The Percent of pass was 8 1．5％，The average deterministic coefficient was O．809．In validation period：the percent of pass was 75％，the average deterministic coefficient was 0．76． Floods events were simulated by hydraulic modeling system Xin’an model and we selected the same floods events as HEC—HMS．Building the model：Evaporation module adopts three layer evaporation calculation model．Natural storage model was selected to compute runoff volumes．The runoff was divided into surface runoff,interflow and underground runoff by the free water reservoir．Surface runoff was calculated by using the unit hydrograph model，interflow and underground runoff was calculated by using linear reservoir method．After calibration and validation，in calibration period：The percent of pass was 85．2％，the average deterministic coeffi