油藏含水饱和度的泊松过程分析方法α-系统工程理论与实践.PDF

　1999 年 3 月 系统工程理论与实践 第 3 期　 油藏含水饱和度的泊松过程分析方法 姚恒申　向开理　李治平 ( 西南石油学院计算机科学系, 四川 南充 637001) 摘要　本文将含油储层中任一直线穿越孔隙合理地假设为 Po isson 过程, 应用概率论和随机过程的 有关方法, 综合利用孔隙大小的统计分布及其它储层参数, 导出注水开采油藏任一宏观流线上水淹速 度的表在式, 为进行误差估计, 同时导出了这一速度的方差表达式, 从而解决了注水开采油藏任一时 刻水浸范围及含水饱和度的分析预测问题. 文章结果还可用于生产井见水时间及含水率变化的分析 计算, 实例验证了上述理论结果, 并示范了具体计算的方法步骤. 关键词　油气藏　注水开采　概率论　随机过程 A nalytical Fo recasting fo r W ater Satu ration of R eservo irs 　 　 YAO H engshen X IAN G Kaili L I Zh ip ing (Southw est Petro leum Institute, N anchong Sichuang 637001) Abstract　In th is paper, based on suppo sing the po ro sity distribution of a cro ssed fo r , m ation straigh t line saifies Po isson p rocess bread out velocity fo rm ula of fo rm ation w a ter in any stream line has been put fo rw ard by app lying stochastic p rocess theo ry, p rob abilitic m ethod, po re siz statistical distribution and o ther fo rm ation param eters in the . , w ater injection reservo irs In o rder to estim ate the erro r a deviation fo rm ula fo r th is velocity has been also p resented. T herefo re, w e can app ly these fo rm ulae in th is paper to analytical fo recasting w ater break ing range and w ater saturation of the w ater flood ing reservo irs at any tine. In addition, these fo rm ulae and resultes in th is paper m ay be app lied in analytical cal