基于产能核算的耕地人口承载力动态预测研究.PDF

中国农学通报 2012,28(21): 114-118 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 基于产能核算的耕地人口承载力动态预测研究 ——以四川省郫县为例 陈雪萍，周介铭，何 伟，蒋贵国，潘洪义 （四川师范大学西南土地资源评价与监测教育部重点实验室/地理与资源科学学院，成都610068） 摘 要：为了科学预测耕地人口承载力水平，以成都市郫县为例，通过实地考察，在产能核算的基础上，形 成了耕地生产能力的动态预测模型和土地承载力模型，进而划分人口承载力分区，并对郫县耕地的人口 承载力进行分析评价。研究结果表明：（1）郫县2020 年耕地生能力为50.5718 万t ，未来的耕地人口承 载力较大，但是分布非常不均匀，乡镇之间可承载人数差距最大可达194377人；（2 ）犀浦、郫筒、红光等 社会经济发达的地区耕地的人口承载力较小，人地矛盾尖锐，SR 均大于0.90 ；（3）根据实证研究本测算 方法符合了当地实际，具有客观性和科学性。 关键词：产能核算；人口承载力；理论产能；实际产能；郫县 中图分类号：F323.21 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2011-3526 StudyonPopulationSupportingCapacityofCultivatedLandBasedonProductionCapacity ——ACaseStudyinPixianCountyofSichuan Chen Xueping, Zhou Jieming, He Wei, Jiang Guiguo, Pan Hongyi (KeyLaboratoryofSouthwestLandResourcesEvaluationandMonitoringofMinistryofEducationofChina/Geographyand ResourcesScienceCollege,SichuanNormalUniversity, Chengdu 610068) Abstract:The aim was to predict the population capacity level of cultivated land scientifically. This paper was a case study of the fieldwork in Pixian which was based on the accounting production capacity. It formed the cultivated land production capacity dynamic prediction model and land capacity model, then divided the region of population supporting capacity, made an holistic analysis on Pixian ’s population supporting capacity of land. The results showed that: ( 1) The cultivated land production capacity of Pixian was 505718 t, and the population supporting capacity was large in the coming years. But it distributed uneven, and the largest capacity difference between countryside and town could be 194377. (2) Economical advanced area