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经济学人中文网
经济学人中文网
Syria叙利亚Towards the endgame走向最终决战The world should start preparing for what comes after Syria’s President Bashar Assad全世界应当开始准备叙利亚总统巴沙尔?阿萨德下台之后的工作了Jul 21st 2012 | from the print edition IN EVERY revolution, there is a moment when the tide turns against the regime. In Egypt it came on January 28th last year, when protesters occupied Tahrir Square and torched the ruling-party headquarters. In Libya it happened on August 20th last year, when people in Tripoli rose against Qaddafi. In Syria it may have happened on July 18th, when a bomb struck at the heart of Syria’s military command.在每一场革命中,斗争浪潮总会在某个时刻转变方向,向当局政权迎头打来。在埃及,它发生在去年1月28日——当天抗议者占据了解放广场,将执政党总部付之 一炬。在利比亚,它发生在去年8月20日——当天的黎波里民众起身反抗卡扎菲。在叙利亚,它可能已经发生在今年7月18日——当天叙利亚军事指挥部中心受 到了爆炸袭击。If the attack shifts the balance of power decisively against President Bashar Assad, that is greatly to be welcomed. But a year or so after their revolutions, both Egypt and Libya remain unstable; and Syria, which borders Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, is an exceptionally complex and pivotal part of the Middle East. Those who wish Syrians well now need to focus not just on how to bring about Mr Assad’s swift fall from power, but also on how to spare the post-Assad Syria from murder and chaos and how to prevent violence from spreading across a combustible region.如果这次攻击能决定性地改变力量平衡并使总统巴沙尔?阿萨德落于下风,它应当颇受欢迎。但埃及和利比亚在经历了一年左右的革命之后,两国都仍然很不稳定;而叙利亚毗邻伊拉克、以色列、黎巴嫩、约旦和土耳其,在中东是极为复杂、极为关键的地区。对于那些为叙利亚民众利益考虑的人来说,现在需要关注的不仅是如何尽快让阿萨德倒台,还要关注如何让阿萨德下台后的叙利亚免于杀戮和混乱、如何在这一触即燃的区域避免暴力蔓延。Just go下台吧,阿萨德The bombing of the national security headquarters in Damascus is likely to weaken the regime in a number of ways (see article). It wounded many and killed the defence minister and a former military chief. Worse still for the president was the death of Assef Shawkat, his brother-in-law and one of the regime’s most powerful figures. Mr Assad rapidly filled their positions, but in a country governed by a clique held together by perso
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