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Regional Science and Urban Economics 35 (2005) 265– 277 /locate/econbase A unified convex–concave model of urban land values Mark D. Ecker a,*, Hans R. Isaksonb a Department of Mathematics, University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, IA 50614-0506, USA b Department of Economics, University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, IA 50614-0124, USA Received 17 February 2004; accepted 2 April 2004 Available online 19 February 2005 Abstract This study develops and fits a nonlinear, unified convex–concave model for land sales. The model’s flexibility accommodates convexity for small parcels, concavity for large parcels, a non- deterministic change point while accounting for spatial correlation. All parameters are fit simultaneously from a Bayesian perspective using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. Virtually all previous models for land sales are shown to be special cases of the unified model. The results indicate an 86.9% probability of convexity (plottage) for parcels smaller than 3516 ft2. D 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. JEL classification: R11; C11; R12; R14; R15 Keywords: Bayesian modeling; Change point; Land values; Parcel size; Spatial correlation 1. Introduction The relationship between the size of a parcel of unimproved land and its value is a subject of interest in the literature, both from a theoretical and a practical perspective. From the original conjecture of Mills (1969), that the relationship should be linear, to the model proposed herein, the challenge has been to better understand land values. The purpose of this study is to present a general met