ConceptsofFuturesStudies有关期中考文中加底线部份为.pptVIP

Concepts of Futures Studies有關期中考： 文中加底線部份為考填充題之重點文中加“QA”部份為考簡答題之重點 張保興 副教授 淡江大學水資源暨環境工程學系 .tw/086138/ References Bell, Wendell, Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era, Volume 1, Transaction Publishers, 1997. 淡江大學 /Futurology (/) 參見下頁 Futurology (futures studies) is the study of the medium to long-term future?trends. Extrapolation (探查) is just one of many dozens of methods and techniques used in futures research (as scenarios, Delphi method, brainstorming, morphology (型態學的) and others). Futurology also includes normative (標準規格的) or preferred futures, but the real contribution is to connect both extrapolated (exploratory) and normative research to explore better strategies. [2] The Delphi method is a technique aimed at building an agreement, or consensus ?about an opinion or view, without necessarily having people meet face to face, such as through surveys, questionaires, emails etc. A normative statement, on the other hand, is a statement regarding how things should or ought to be. What are the purposes of futures studies? [1] “… to discover or invent, examine and evaluate, and propose possible, probable and preferable futures. The futures field is an integrative science of reasoning, choosing, and acting.”, p111 “… the study(of ethical foundations) and fostering of deep caring about the freedom and welfare of future generations are among the most important purposes of future studies.”, p88 Lasswell’s 5 tasks for projecting the future p49, [1] , “QA” The clarification of goals and values （價值觀） The description of trends The explanation of conditions (or, the description of assumptions) The projection of possible and probable futures (or consequences) for intended policies The value evaluation of consequences and selection of policy alternatives (in order to achieve the preferred goals) （不要忘記評估事件發生的機率） What futurists seek to know? “… what can or could be (the possible) (可能發生的) , what is likely to be (the probable) (很有可能發生的) , and