ProductLifeCycleTHEORY(国际贸易-英文)产品生命周期理论.ppt

The Product Life-Cycle Theory The product life-cycle model of trade (PLC) (PCT) Product Cycle Theory Why? Consider: “The model (PLC) claims that many products go through a trade cycle, during which the United States is initially an exporter, then loses its export markets and may finally become an importer of the product. ” ——Louis T. Wells, JR * OUTLINE Background Brief Introduction Stages of the Product Cycle Trade Implications of Product Cycle * I Background Factor Endowment Theory assumed that: same technology in production; production function(生产函数); kind of products.) ( eg: some advanced countries: share very similar general economic conditions) But in reality, the technology every country adopted does exist gap, and this gap is dynamically changing. To explain the causes of international trade and trade patterns based on the changes in technology ,in 1961, the U.S. economist M. V. Posner proposed the Technological Gap Theory and gave an explanation. * Technological Gap Theory (技术差距论) Trade maybe caused by technical changes and developments. “Particular technical changes originate in one country, ‘comparative cost differences’(比较成本差异) may induce trade in particular goods during the lapse of time taken for the rest of the world to imitate one country’s innovation. ” ——International Trade and Technical Change A demand lag (需求时滞) A imitation lag (模仿时滞) A reaction lag (反应时滞) A mastery lag (掌握时滞) * I Background Technological Gap Model * t0 创新国生产和出口 模仿国生产和出口 T（时间） 创新国生产 创新国进口 模仿国出口 创新国出口 模仿国进口 t1 t2 t3 需求时滞 反应时滞 掌握时滞 模仿时滞 模仿国生产 国际贸易的可能 However… (why…take the leading position) (how long…imitation gap) …By combining PLC in marketing with international trade theory… Technological development of a new product generally has three stages: new product stage, the