中国城化和碳排放关系动态计量分析.PDFVIP

第五辑 中国城市研究 106~117 中国城市化与碳排放关系的动态计量分析 谢守红 徐西原 The Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Chinas Urbanization and the Carbon Emissions XIE Shouhong XU Xiyuan (School of business，Jiangnan University，Wuxi 214122 ，China) Abstract Cities are concentrated regions of carbon emission, and urbanization is important factor of carbon emission growth in China. This paper utilizes Chinas urbanization level data from 1985 to 2009 and calculation result of Chinas carbon emission over the same period and applies correlation analysis ，cointegration analysis, Stewart Granger causality analysis and error correction model for the data inspection. The result shows that there exists strong correlation and long-term cointegration relationship between Chinese urbanization and carbon emission, the increasing level of urbanization is an important cause of carbon emission growth, but the carbon emission can not interpret the level of urbanization. Then the authors apply the impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition for dynamic simulation and analyze the interaction mechanism and the degree of influence between Chinese urbanization and carbon emission. Finally, some recommendations and measures of low-carbon urbanization in China are put forward. Keywords urbanization; carbon emission; energy consumption; low-carbon economy 摘 要 城市是碳排放的密集区域，城市化是我国碳排放量增长的重要因素。采用 1985-2009 年的中国城市化水平数据和同期中国碳排放量的测算数据，运用相关分析、 协整检验、格兰杰因果分析和误差修正模型对中国城市化与碳排放的关系进行检验，结 果显示中国城市化水平与碳排放量具有很高的正相关性，两者之间存在着长期的协整关 系，城市化水平的提高是碳排放量增加的重要原因，但碳排放量不能解释城市化水平的  作者简介：谢守红、徐西原，江南大学商学院。 商务印书馆 2012 谢守红，徐西原：中国城市化与碳排放关系的动态计量分析 提高。城市化水平对碳排放的影响具有滞后性，短期影响较小，长期影响显著。接着