计量经济-国内生产总值影响因素的计量分析.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 1 . .. 国内生产总值影响因素的计量分析 学院名称： 专业名称： 作者姓名： 学 号： 指导老师： 摘 要 自党的十一届三中全会以来，我国进入了改革开放的新时期。30多年来，我国的经济建设取得了令世人瞩目的巨大成就——国内经济持续高速增长，基本实现总体小康，人民生活水平显著提高，综合国力不断增强，国际地位也显著提高。国民经济繁荣给中国的发展带来了昂扬的生命力。而GDP是衡量一国经济增长的重要指标，因此，对国内生产总值影响因素的经济分析研究具有十分重要意义。本文采用经济增长模型和多元线性回归分析方法对1992～2011年国内生产总值的影响因素进行研究，分析了消费、财政支出和进出口对经济发展的影响，建立计量模型，寻求这些变量与GDP的数量关系，进行定量分析以及检验，并根据所得结论提出一些可行性的相关建议。 关键词：国内生产总值 消费 财政支出 净出口 计量分析 目 录 1 前言·····························································3 2 理论综述·························································3 2.1 国内生产总值···················································3 2.2 影响因素分析···················································3 3 实证模型构建·····················································4 3.1 数据收集·······················································4 3.2 模型设计·······················································5 3.2.1 建立模型·····················································5 3.2.2 模型参数估计·················································5 4 模型检验·························································6 4.1 统计推断检验···················································6 4.1.1 经济意义检验·················································6 4.1.2 R^2检验······················································6 4.1.3 t检验·························································6 4.1.4 F检验 4.2 计量经济检验···················································7 4.2.1 多重共线性检验················································7 4.2.2 异方差检验···················································11 4.2.3 自相关检验···················································13 4.2.4 最终结果·····················································14 5 结论与说明·······················································14 6 实习感悟·························································15 参考文献···························································16 1 前言 “GDP”被美国商务部誉为“20世纪的伟大发明之一”。：GDP能够反映国民经济发展变化情况，并为国家以及各个地区经济发展战略目标和宏观经济政策提供了重要工具和依据。GDP还为检验宏观经济政策的科学性和有效性提供了重要的检测工具，