非一致性洪水对南宁防洪工程体系防洪能力的影响研究水工结构工程专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 11 THE THE EFFECTS 0F lNCONSISTENCY FLOOD ON FLOOD CONTROL CAPACITY OF NANNING FLOOD CONTROL ENG矾EER矾G SYSTEM ABSTRACT Due to the influences of climatic variations and human social activities， Yujiang River Basin has occurred remarkable changes on the underlying surface and the observed flood time series are no longer satisfying consistent assumption．Taking Nanning Flood Prevention Project System as research object， this paper discusses the influences of inconsistent flood on the flood prevention ability of Nanning Flood Prevention Proj ect System SO as to provide technical support for the flood-prevention dispatching rule adjustments of Nanning Flood Prevention Project System under the condition ofunderlying surface changes． Firstly,if the observed flood time series of Baise Hydrology Station and Nanning Hydrology Station satisfy consistency is inspected．The trend components and jump components of the time series are separately inspected． Integrating each method to inspect the performance and analyzing with physical factors of each area，this paper confirms that Baise’S flood peak discharge， maximum 7 days’flood volume and Nanning’S maximum 7 days’flood volume as well as the time series of Baise-Nanning interval maximum 7 days’flood volume occur trend variability；Nanning flood peak and Baise-Nanning interval flood peak time series occur jump variability and the variability points are both in 1986． Secondly,in accordance with the inspect result of variability,the decomposition and synthesis method based on random time series is adopted toward trend variability and the method based on Mixture Distribution Hypothesis is adopted toward jump variability forms to conduct the frequency calculation and analysis of inconsistent flood time series separately．The 万方数据 万方数据 obtained obtained results are compared with the original time series frequency regardless of variability．The result indicates that the flood reducing phenomenon is relatively obvious as the river