核辐射事故应急救援中辐射防护措施的选择.docVIP

核辐射事故应急救援中辐射防护措施的选择 目前，世界上有许多国家利用计算机技术研究和开发核辐射事故应急 决策支持系统，包括设计防护措施优化分析的计算机程序，作为应急决策 的咨询系统，以便在发生严重核辐射事故时能够根据实时的事故情景，及 时、有效地给出合理的应急防护措施。常用的防护措施优化决策分析方法 要对几个可选应急防护措施尽可能地进行客观止确的评价，需要满足防护 的可避免剂量大、措施的健康风险小和费用少等多个决策口标，特别是一 些因素貝有模糊性，很难定量来描述。木文在分析核辐射事故的特点及不 同核辐射事故的阶段采取的防护措施的基础上，构建辐射防护措施的优选 模型，釆用区间层次分析法对实时在线决策支持系统给出几个合理的应急 防护措施进行优选，使不同应急防护措施的比较定量化，便于进行措施优 选，从而解决了核辐射事故应急防护中专家经验判断的不确定性和模糊性 问题。经实例研究计算表明，该方法的决策结果相对于主观判断比较合理、 客观和可靠，可为核辐射事故应急防护的优选提供参考。 关键词核辐射事故；区间层次分析；辐射防护措施；优选 Abstract At present, many countries have been using and developing the radiation emergency decision support system, which includes the optimum design of the radiation protective measures. For example, the real-time and online decision support system is able to provide several accurate radiation protective measures according to the scenario of the accident, but, it is crucial to evaluate the risk of these alternative measures, because the decision-makers are faced with several conflicting objectives, including the minimization of the potential harmful health effects and the associated socioeconomic impacts, and the maximization of the avoidable absorption of radiation. Currently, the radiation protective measure is optimized commonly from several optional emergent protective measures using multiattribute utility analysis benefits-costs analysis, fuzzy and hierarchy decision theory and the Bays decision technique. On the basis of establishing the multi-layer structure of nuclear accident emergency decision, several decision objectives are synthetically analyzed, and an optimization model of radiation protective measures for nuclear accident emergency based on interval analytic hierarchy process is proposed in the paper. The model makes the comparisons among several emergency protective measures quantified, and the optimum protective measures is selected out, which solved the uncertain and fuzzy decision problem of judgments by experts experiences in nuclear accidents emergency decision. Case study shows that t