多年冻土分布模型在青藏高原的应用研究地图学与地理信息系统专业论文.docxVIP

兰州大学硕+学位论文 兰州大学硕+学位论文 多年冻十分布模型在青藏高原的应用研究 图比较。从面积统计以及Kappa系数计算结果可以看出，MODIS地表温度产品 的模拟结果比实测数据的模拟结果更接近青藏高原冻土图。 基于以上结果，结合MODIS地表温度数据，进一步讨论和比较了多年冻土 顶板温度模型(TTOP)、冻结数模型、Kudryavtsev模型及年平均地温模型在青 藏高原的应用，与基于调绘的青藏高原冻土图相比。结果显示：四个模型中， TTOP模型的模拟结果最好，其次冻结数模型、年平均地温模型、Kudryavtsev 模型；MODIS地表温度产品比实测Ocm地表温度能够较好的模拟青藏高原多年 冻土分布状况，这与高原实测站点少且分布不均有很大关系；在同样输入实测数 据即实测地表温度和实测地温数据的时候，年平均地温模型模拟结果最好，说明 年平均地温可以作为冻土类型划分的可靠指标；分区计算Kappa系数结果显示， 在藏北和高原腹地分布着大片连续多年冻土的区域，模拟结果较好，而在臧南、 喜马拉雅山附近分布岛状不连续多年冻土的区域，模拟结果较差；对模拟结果按 照海拔、地势起伏度分级后进行分类总体精度的计算表明，模拟结果符合高海拔 多年冻土分布所具有的垂直地带性这一特征规律。 关键词：青臧高原，多年冻土分布模型，MODIS地表温度产品，适用性评价 兰州大学硕I二学位论文 兰州大学硕I二学位论文 多年冻土分布模型在青藏高原的应用研究 Applications of permafrost distribution models on the Qinghai—Tibet plateau Abstract As one of the major components of cryosphere，permafrost can not be ignored in the global climate system．Permafrost is widely distributed．and has unique hydro-thermal properties．It is a very important factor in the Earth land surface processes．The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)，the highest and the largest permafrost area in low-middle latitudes all over the world．has a significant effect on the formation，development，and evolution of the climate system in East China and even East Asia。and therefore is known as the alarming or startup region．With increasing human activities，such as the operation of Qinghai．Tibet railway．a correct assessment of the permafrost distribution in the QTP is not only the base of investigating and solving practical engineering problems，but also the requirement for stable and sustainable development of ecological environment and local economy． Because of high altitudes and vast areas of the QTP-permafrost data are difficult to obtain using traditional regional investigation methods．In this case．permafrost distribution modeling is an effective method．Although there have been a number of permafrost distribution models available in the literature．not a11 of them can be applied to the QTP．Ap