工程保险的风险管理模式研究安全技术及工程专业论文.docxVIP

沈阳航空航天大学硕士学位论文摘要 沈阳航空航天大学硕士学位论文 摘要 保险业是一个经营风险的行业，是转移风险的一种重要途径。经过几十年的发展， 在国内形成了符合中国国情的经营模式。随着人们生活质量的提高，对生命和财产安全 的需求越来越强烈。这些对安全保障的需求在一定程度上可以通过保险的手段得到解 决。 国内各个城市不乏结构独特、用料新颖、技术创新的建筑物，这些新技术、新材料 和新工艺的采用，大大提高了工程施工风险。工程保险作为转移工程风险的重要手段， 也面临着经营风险变大的威胁。工程保险在其全寿命周期的不同阶段面临着不同的风 险，而这些风险与保险标的的风险密切相关。工程项目是一个复杂的系统，工程风险各 因素之间存在不确定的关联性。在前人研究基础之上，本文采用风险链的理论及方法研 究工程风险的关联性，运用模糊马尔科夫链计算不同风险因素状态转移概率，从而确定 导致风险事故发生的风险关键点，这些关键点将是工程保险核保阶段重点分析评估的对 象。对于两个及以上的关键风险，采用RAC风险评价矩阵和灰色斜率关联度相结合的方 法评价关键风险因素并进行风险分类。依据研究结果制定工程保险核保、承保及理赔阶 段这样一个全寿命周期的风险管理模式。 关键字：全寿命周期；风险链；风险关键点；灰色关联性分析；风险矩阵；模糊马尔可 夫链；风险管理模式 沈阳航空航天大学硕士学位论文Abstract 沈阳航空航天大学硕士学位论文 Abstract Insurance is an industry which conducts risks；it is an．important approach to transfer risks．After decades of development，a conduct model agree with our national conditions was put forward．With the raise of people’S life quality,safety requirements as respect to life and property are enhanced．These requirements Call be satisfied through some kind of insurance to acertaindegree． Buildings with special structure，new materials and new techniques can be seen everywhere in cities．These new things used in the process of building constructions bring new risks that were never known by people．Meanwhile，construction insurance is also threatened by operation risks．At different stages of construction insurance life cycle，there ale different risks which are closely relative with proj ect risks．Construction proj ect is a complicated system，of which risk factors which consist in this system ale linked by intricate and uncertain relationships．On the basis of researches of the predecessors，theories and modeling methods about risk chain were adopted in this paper to investigate into the relationships between different risks，Fuzzy Markov chain was used to determine which risk factor was risk key,and these risk keys would be investigated in stage of construction insurance underwriting．As to multiple risks，RAC and Gray relevance analysis were used together to investigate into risk na