人民币汇率的稳定机制及其动态过程Ⅲ——目标区域模型The-Core.PDFVIP

1999 10 10 ( ) a 魏巍贤 ( , 361005) : Ktu gman , 1994 1 - 1997 3 , : ; 1997 4 - 9 . . , , ( 1577. 5 ) . , , . : ; ; ; : F224. 1; F832 T he M echani m of Stability and Dynamic Proce of RM B Exchange Rate ( ) the Exchange Rate T arg et Zone M odel - WEI Wei xian ( In tit ut e of Finance , Xiamen U niver ity , Xiamen 36 1005) Abstract : Ba ed on t he Krugman tar g et zone model and foreign ex chang e contr ol and manag e float ing y tem of China, thi paper employ an art ificial neur al net work to - , . . , con truct a non linear mo del of R M B ex chang e r ate i e t he ex chang e r ate targ et zo ne mo del. T he m onthly data for the perio d for m January 1994 to M ar ch 1997 ar e u ed for mo deling and the follow ing ix month in 1997 for foreca t. T he r e ult how that t he mo del fit the actual w ell and ha g oo d for eca t power . Ba ed o n RM B ex change rat e tar get zo ne model, the optimal upper limit of for eig n re erve ize of China i r e olved a w ell by making u e of the modelmooth pa ting conditio n. Keywords : RM B ex chang e r ate; for eign ex chang e re erv e ; ex chang e rate tar g et zo ne mo del; artificial neur al netw or k 1 70 , . , . . 80 , , . , 1991 , Krugman[ 1] ( the ba ic a : 1998-01-12 : ( : 56 1999 10 tar get zo ne mo del) . , . Krug man , , , , , : ; 1997 4- 9 . . , , . , ,