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6 - Decision Trees example 例:某公司计划开发一种新产品,设计了豪华型和普及型两个型号:个型号: 豪华型: 成功盈利800万元，成功的概率为60%, 失败亏损300万元. 失败的概率为40%; 普及型: 成功盈利600万元. 成功的概率为70%. 失败亏损 30万元. 失败的概率为30%。 决策方案 自然状态及概率 支付值 期望值 * ? Prentice Hall, 2002 Chapter 06 DECISION MAKING: THE ESSENCE OF THE MANAGER’S JOB 6-* Learning Objectives You should learn to: 1,Outline the steps in the decision-making process 2,Explain why decision making is so pervasive in organizations 3,Describe the rational decision maker 4,Contrast the perfectly rational and bounded rational approaches to decision making 5,Explain the role that intuition plays in the de