经济学原理·萨尔森--中山大学岭南学院ch11.pptVIP

CH.11 Uncertainty and Game Theory A. Economics of Risk and Uncertainty Speculation 投机:making profits from fluctuations in prices. The economic function: shipping goods across space and time. Arbitrage 套利 purchase a good or asset in one market for immediate resale in another market in order to profit from a price discrepancy. As a result of arbitrage, the price difference between markets will be less than the cost of moving the good from one market to the other. Speculators Even Out the Price of a Commodity over Time hedging 套期保值 shedding risks through hedging通过套期保值分摊风险 The Economic Impacts of Speculation Improve the price and allocation patterns across space and time as well as help transfer risk. Ideal speculation serves the important function of reducing the variation in consumption and can increase total utility and allocational efficiency. Speculative Storage Can Improve Efficiency Risk and Uncertainty Risk-averse 风险规避: the displeasure from losing a given amount of income is greater than the pleasure from gaining the amount of income. insurance and risk spreading保险与风险分摊 Insurance is another form of gambling, but it has the opposite effect. Capital market and risk sharing spreading the ownership of capital or of individual risky investments among a multitude of owners the trouble rise in gambling “零和博弈”（zero-sum game） “负和博弈”（negative-sum game） Market Failures in Information Moral Hazard 道德风险 Adverse Selection 逆向选择 B.Game Theory What Happens When Two Firms Insist on Undercutting Each Other? Basic Concepts Duopoly Price War双寡头价格战 Player 参与人 Strategy 策略 Payoff Table支付矩阵表 dominant strategy占优策略 dominant equilibrium占优均衡 Nash equilibrium 纳什均衡 A Payoff Table for a Price War Rivalry game noncooperative equilibrium非合作均衡 Should a Duopolist Try the Monopoly Price? some important examples of game theory Prisoner’s Dilemma 囚徒困境: figure 11-6 the pollution game污染博弈:figure 11-7 Deadly arms races致命的军备竞赛 winner-take-all game 胜者全得: figure 11-8 To Confess or Not