本溪山区气候变化与主要农业气象灾害的响应.PDFVIP

中国农学通报 2011,27(8):310-316 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 本溪山区气候变化与主要农业气象灾害的响应 吉 奇，邢 刚 （本溪市气象局，辽宁本溪117000） 摘 要：利用本溪地区1953—2008 年温度、降水和主要农业气象灾害资料，根据农业气象学原理和农业 气象灾害指标，整理、统计、分析相应的气象要素。采用气候倾向率和Mann-kendall 方法，对气象要素变 化特征进行诊断分析。结果表明：本溪山区温度呈上升趋势、降水呈下降趋势变化，年平均气温线性倾 向率为0.29 ℃/ 10a ，四季中，冬季线性倾向率最大，为0.61 ℃/ 10a ；年降水量的线性倾向率为 -26.11 mm/ 10a ，春季线性倾向率为2.88 mm/ 10a ，其他各季呈减少趋势变化。暴雨日数呈现减少趋势变 化，但是灾害损失呈现增加趋势，洪涝频率减少，干旱频率增加。通过对气候变化与主要气象灾害研究， 为合理开发山区气候资源，调整产业结构提供科学的气象依据。 关键词：气候变化；农业气象灾害；本溪山区 中图分类号：S166 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2010-2498 ClimaticChangeandResponseofMainAgrometeorologicalDisasterinBenxiMountainousArea Ji Qi, Xing Gang (BenxiMeteorologicalBureau, Benxi Liaoning 117000) Abstract: Based on the temperature, precipitation and the main agrometeorological disaster data from 1953 to 2008 in Benxi, according to the principle of agrometeorology and index of agrometeorological disaster, the meteorological elements were combined, statisticed and analyzed. The variability features were studied by applying the method of climate tendency rate and Mann-kendall. The result that the temperature changes presented increasing trend. Precipitation changes showed a decreasing trend. The tendency ratio of annual mean temperature was 0.29℃/ 10a, The tendency ratio was biggest for 0.61℃/ 10a in winter. The tendency ratio of annual precipitation was -26.11 mm/10a, precipitation tendency ratio was 2.88 mm/10a in spring, while it was decreasing in other seasons, and the tendency ratio of rainstorm was decreasing, but the disaster loses increases the tendency. The flooding frequency reduced, the arid frequency i