基于层次分析法的A股上市银行投资价值分析——以中国民生银行为例-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

I I 摘 要 近年来我国银行业发展迅速，16 家上市银行占 A 股市场上市公司总数的 0.7%，市值却占到总市值的 70%。银行股的业绩对于证券市场的走势有非常重要 的影响。2013 年以来，商业银行保持平稳运行，资本充足率和资产质量总体保持 稳定。目前 A 股上市银行整体经营状况良好，随着我国经济的继续发展以及行业 的不断完善，银行业的投资机会及投资回报也将日益明显。寻求合适的价值投资 方法，正确地对 A 股上市银行进行投资价值分析，对于投资者具有重要参考意义。 本文介绍了商业银行投资价值分析相关的国内外研究成果，确定了利用层次 分析法构建上市银行投资价值综合评价体系，结合 EVA 估值模型、市盈率法、市 净率法进行估值的研究思路，从宏观经济及行业发展情况两方面分析了民生银行 的投资环境，介绍了民生银行的经营现状，分析了其优势及风险。采用层次分析 法，在盈利能力、风险控制能力、发展能力、营运能力和整体规模五个方面选取 24 个指标进行投资价值综合分析，并利用 EVA 估值模型、市盈率法、市净率法 进行了估值，得出民生银行的股价区间。认为中国民生银行具备较好的投资环境， 综合竞争力排名第六，股票价格被低估，具备较高的投资价值，并提出提高中国 民生银行投资价值的相关政策建议。 关键词：层次分析法，上市银行，投资价值，经济增加值 II II Abstract In recent years, China’s banking industry has been developing fast. The 16 A-share listed banks account for 0.7% of the number of listed company but account for 70% of total market capitalization. The performance of bank stocks have very significant impact on stock market. In 2013, commercial banks kept running smoothly. The capital adequacy ratio and asset quality remained stable. With the continued development of economy and the improvement of industry, opportunities and return on banking investment will become apparent. It is important to seek an appropriate approach of A-share listed banks’ investment value for investors. This article introduces the relevant research of commercial banks’ investment value at home and abroad and establishes the research approach using AHP to build a comprehensive evaluation system, combined with EVA valuation model, P/E and P/B. It analyzes the investment environment of China Minsheng Banking Corporation in two respects of macro and industry environment, considering that there is a good investment environment, but there are also challenges. It also introduces the profile and operating condition of CMBC. It analyzes CMBC’s advantages and risks. Then it analyzes CMBC investment value via AHP, by selecting 24 indicators and weighting them according to the importance of profitability, risk control ability, developing capacity, operating capacity and market s