基于贝叶斯网络的SF6断路器状态综合评估-电气工程专业论文.docxVIP

华北电力大学硕士学位论文 华北电力大学硕士学位论文 I I 摘 要 近年来，电力系统的建设投入加大，其相应的规模和设备也日益增加，对状 态检修的需求也愈加迫切。要开展状态检修，就要抓住其核心部分，也就是掌握 电力设备的状态。SF6 断路器作为电网设备中最重要之一，确定其运行状态是首 当其冲的任务。本文针对目前石家庄电网输变电设备不断增长的现状和对状态检 修的迫切需求，选取电网设备中最具代表性的 SF6 断路器作为状态评估研究对象, 提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的 SF6 断路器状态综合评估方法。 本文选取石家庄电网中SF6断路器的状态信息进行总结分析。根据现场工作 需要，结合模糊理论，进行SF6断路器评价指标模型构建，用数字对SF6 断路器 的健康状态进行评分，建立了状态信息评分模型。利用SF6 断路器状态信息评分 和等级评定的方法对石家庄电网内SF6断路器的历史状态、当前状态、预测状态 进行评分和等级评定。最终，用贝叶斯网络构建模型，将评估结果导入其中进行 测试，得出SF6 断路器的综合状态，从而为SF6断路器现场开展状态检修提供决 策支持。 关键词：贝叶斯网络；SF6 断路器；状态评估；评价指标 II II Abstract In these years, with the investment in construction of power system increasing, the scale of power system and the equipment is also increasing. So we need more and more on condition maintenance. While condition maintenance is focused on determining the states of equipment. Determining the operating state of SF6 circuit breakers is one of the most important tasks in power system. In the view of the increasing of power equipments and the urgent needs of equipment condition-based maintenance in Shijiazhuang power system at present, we selected the most representative SF6 circuit breaker as the research object on the state assessment. For operation condition of SF6 circuit breakers, this paper proposed a comprehensive evaluation method which is based on the Bayesian Network. This paper selected the states information of SF6 breakers in Shijiazhuang power grid and carried on the summary analysis. According to the field work, combining with fuzzy theory, we established evaluation index system of SF6 circuit breakers, used digitals to evaluate the states of SF6 circuit breakers, and established the centesimal system. Using SF6 circuit breaker state information scores and grade evaluation methods on Shijiazhuang power grid, we can get the scores of different periods including previous，present and prospective operation condition individually. Eventually, we built the model using Bayesian network. Then, we sent the evaluation to the model and test it. So, we get