基于季节调整的业扩报装分析预测研究-电气工程专业论文.docxVIP

山东大学硕士学位论文3．4高压新装客户稳定用电量预测 山东大学硕士学位论文 3．4高压新装客户稳定用电量预测 ．25 3．4．1高压新装客户稳定用电量预测方法 25 3．4．2算例分析 27 3．5小结 ．29 第四章基于业扩报装的客户群电量预测方法 3l 4．1引言 3 l 4．2客户群电量预测 3l 4．2．1客户群电量预测方法 ．．32 4．2．2算例分析 34 4．3小结 36 第五章未来售电市场变化趋势 37 5．1引言 37 5．2业扩报装与售电量先行关系探究 ．37 5．2．1基于售电量预测报装容量 ．．37 5．2．2基于报装容量预测售电量 ．．39 5．3售电市场变化趋势 41 5．3．1评判指标及方向 ．．4l 5．3．2按地市分析业扩报装情况 ．．41 5．3．3按用电类别分析业扩报装情况 ．．43 5．3．4按行业分析业扩报装情况 ．．45 5．4小结 ．47 第六章总结与展望 49 6．1全文总结 49 6．2未来展望 50 参考文献 ．．5l 致谢 55 攻读硕士学位期间所发表的论文及参与的项目 ．．56 万方数据 山东大学硕士学位论文Contents 山东大学硕士学位论文 Contents Abstract(Chinese) ．．I Abstract(English) Ill Chapter 1 Introduction． ． ．． ．．．． ． ． ．．1 1．I Background and significance ．1 1．2 Present studies ． ． ． 2 1．3 Main work ofthe dissertation ．． ．4 Chapter 2 Theoretical Foundation and Basic Method 5 2．1 Introduction ．． ．．． ．．5 2．2 Seasonal adjustment ．． ． ． ． ．．．．． ．．5 2．2．1 Time series ．． ． ． ．． ． ．．．5 2．2．2 Concept ． ． ． 6 2．2．3 Development ．．． ． ．．．．．． ． ． ．．．．6 2．2．4 Model X．12 7 2．2．5 Example ．． ． ． ．． ．．9 2．3 Growth curves．． ．． ．．．．．．．． ． ． ． ． ．．9 2．4 The principal component analysis method 1 1 2．5 The grey correlation analysis method ． ．． ．12 2．6 Summary．．．．．．．．．．． ．．．．．． ．．． ．．．．．． ．． ． ．．． ． 13 Chapter 3 Electricity forecasting of the customer with high voltage newly installed business ． ．15 3．1 Introduction ．．15 3．2 The growth law exploration ．．．． ．． ．．．．．．．． ．．15 3．2．1 Calculation method ．15 3．2．2 Analysis ofexamples ．16 3．3 The growth law exploration with seasonal adjustment ． ．20 3．3．1 Calculation method ．20 3．3．2 Analysis ofexamples ．21 万方数据 3．4 3．4 The stable electricity consumption forecasting ··25 3．4．1 Calculation method ．25 3．4．2 Analysis ofexamples ·27 3．5 slm】ma珂 29 Chapter 4 The electricity sales forecasting method of customer grope based on bus主ness expanding ·3l 4．1 Introduction ．．31 4．2 The electricity sales forecasting method 31 4．2．1 Calculation method ．32 4．2．2 Analysis ofexamples ·34 4．3 Summary 36 Chapter 5 The potential trends ofthe future electric selling