建筑工程安全管理及事故预测分析-市政工程专业论文.docxVIP

建筑工程安全管理及事故预测分析研究摘 建筑工程安全管理及事故预测分析研究 摘 要 在整个世界范围内，建筑业都是属于最危险的行业之～，建筑业的事故率 也都远远高于其他行业的平均水平。我国目前建筑业的安全生产形势仍然严峻， 建筑业较低的安全水平已成为国家建设和谐社会的重要障碍，也阻碍了建筑业 的发展。发展我国的安全管理具有重大的积极的现实意义。文章首先分析总结 了国内外当前建筑安全生产的形势和安全管理的现状；分析了我国建筑安全管 理存在的八个问题；借鉴了发达国家和地区在建筑安全管理方面的实践经验， 针对存在的问题提出了适合我国建筑安全的对策和建议。其次分析了建筑安全 事故形成的原因，提出了“3M1E”因素，即人、物、环境和管理，分析了四因 素之间的关系，认为改善和提高安全管理可以减少事故的发生。最后阐述了事 故预测在安全管理中的重要意义，分别应用灰色理论和BP神经网络理论建立了 建筑事故预测模型，通过预测实例说明了模型的应用。 关键词：建筑安全管理事故原因事故预测灰色预测理论BP神经网络理论 Study Study on Construction Safety Management and Accident Analysis and Forecast Abstract In the whole world construction industry is one of the most dangerous industries．The rate of construction industry accident iS also higher than the average of other industries．At present the situation of construction safety is still serious in our country．The poor safety of construction industry has become the main obstacle to build the harmonious country and also has hampered the development of construction industry．Developing safety management of our country has important and active meaning．Firstly the paper analyses and summarizes the situation of construction safetB then status quo of safety management and eight problems of construction safety management．Then the paper presents measures and suggestions according the construction safety management problems of our country in the base of following construction safety management experience of some developed countries and areas．Secondly the paper analyses the reasons of construction accidents and presents four reasons which are men，machine or maRermanagement and environment。then analyses their relation and draws a conclusion which iS improving construction safety management call reduce the construction accident·At last the paper illuminates the important meaning of the accident forecast in construction safety management and then establishes a gray forecast model of construction accident using gray theory and a back propagation neural network model of construction accident using back