江西省城市火灾发生风险评估-森林保护学专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 本研究基于江西省11个城市历年火灾资料、人口资料、夜问灯光指数、日照和 降水量资料进行相关分析的基础上，分别建立了基于社会经济要素、气候条件的城 市火灾风险评估模型及城市火灾发生风险综合评估模型。并进行了基于经济要素、 气候条件的城市火灾风险区划和江西省城市火灾风险综合区划。 (1)城市火灾数随人口总数和人口密度增加而增多，人口密度比人口总数更能 反映火灾次数；夜间灯光指数与城市火灾次数成正相关，夜问灯光指数越高，城市 火灾出现的可能性越大；城市火灾次数与年日照时数呈显著的正相关，与降雨量成 负相关，日照时数越多，发生城市火灾的可能性越大；降雨量越多，湿度越大，发 生城市火灾的机率越小。 (2)基于夜间灯光指数和人口总数等社会经济要素的城市火灾发生风险评估模 型可解释56％的城市火灾发生风险，空问分布特征不明显；选择年降雨量与年日照 时数等气候条件对城市火灾发生风险的贡献为15％，城市火灾发生风险的空间分布 格局呈由西南向东北呈增加趋势。基于人口总数、夜问灯光指数、年日照时数、年 降雨量等社会经济与气候条件的江西省城市火灾发生风险综合评估模型，将江西省 分为城市火灾高风险区、较高风险区、中风险区、较低风险区和低风险区5类。 针对上述研究结果，本文提出了城市高层建筑防火对策、人员密集场所防火对 策和电缆火灾预防对策，为江西省营造良好的城市安全消防环境、促进社会经济发 展提供理论参考。 关键词： 城市火灾；夜间灯光指数；风险区划；气候因子 万方数据 AbstractAbstract Abstract Abstract The urban fire risk increasing with the development of urbanization，rapidly increasing of population，centralization of enterprises，high—rising of residential building．Urban fire is influenced by natural factors and human factors，with both nature and social attribute．Urban fire lead to life and property seriously damaged，and affect social security and economic development at the same time． Based the analysis ofcorrelation among historical fire data，demographic data，nighttime light index， sunshine hours and precipitation data in 1 1 cities of Jiangxi province，urban fie risk assement models based social economic facmrs and climate condition,amd comprehensive assessment model were established．Meanwhile，urban fie risk regionalizations were mapped by climate variables， socioeconomic elements and comprehensive elements of urban fire risk．respectively．The results showed that：1)urban fire have positive response nighttime light index,populations and population density,the higher nighttime light,populations and populaion density the more urban fie． U出an fire number show significantly positive correlation with annual sunshine duration,but negative correlation with precipitation．2)The urban fie risk assessment model based the nighttime light and total populations Can explain 56％of the urban fire risk,the spatial ch