基于疏散效率的应急优化问题2.doc

基于疏散效率的展会应急优化问题研究 霍良安1 黄培清1 程云龙 2 (1 上海交通大学 安泰经济与管理学院 上海 200052；2 重庆邮电大学 移通学院 重庆 400065) 摘要：鉴于展会人员流动的可控性高、密度大等特点，本文重点研究展会应急疏散优化问题，引入了疏散效率的概念，提出了基于疏散效率的展会应急道路网络优化模型。从展会管理者的角度，考虑应急疏散效率和待疏散人群的路径选择行为，以路网用户均衡作为下层模型，在资源有限的情况下，建立使应急疏散负效用最小化为上层目标的应急路网双层规划模型，决定是否增设相应的应急通道，如何分配路网中待疏散人群的流量，优化应急疏散网络，将待疏散人群及时疏散到安全地带，减少应急事件造成的损失。 关键词：应急管理；疏散效率；双层规划；展会 Research about Optimization of Exhibition Emergency Problem Based on Evaluation Efficiency HUO Liang-an 1 HANG Peingqing 1 CHEN Yunlong 2 (1, Antai College of Economics Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052 China；2, Coll ege of Mobile Telecommunications, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecom, Chongqing 400065 China) Abstract: In view of characteristics of exhibition people flow is HYPERLINK javascript:showjdsw(jd_t,j_) controllability and high density, in this paper, we focuses on research about optimization of exhibition emergency evacuation problem, and the concept of evacuation efficiency is introduced, then the optimization model of emergency evacuation road network is proposed. From the perspective of exhibition managers, emergency evacuation efficiency and route choice behavior of evacuating population were considered. In the case of limited resources, this paper puts forward a bi-level optimization model of emergency evacuation road network based on evacuation efficiency， in which user equilibrium problem as a lower-level model, and minimize the disutility of the emergency evacuation as a up-level model. The manager will decide whether additional the corresponding emergency access, and consider how to allocate the flow of people in road network to be evacuated, and optimize the network of emergency evacuation, evacuate people to safe areas in time to reduce the losses caused by the emergency incident. Keywords: emergency management; evacuation efficiency; bi-level programming; exhibition 1引言 项目资助: 国家自然科学基金项目,(; 上海社哲项目 2008BJB032作者简介: 霍良安(1981-)，男，博士研究生，陕西旬阳人，研究方向：应急管理; E-ma